Day 15: What Next?

On day 15 of the Israel-Hizballa war, two notable events too place. The first is the failure of diplomacy in Rome where the US, the UK and, to some extent, France opposed a shallow cease-fire that would not address the fundamental problem of Hizballa's arms and the danger posed to Lebanon's stability and Israel's northern towns. The second event is the tactical setback dealt to the IDF in Bint Jbeil on the hands of the Iranian proxy. Adding insult to injury, Hizballa fired a record number of rockets on Northern Israel, underlying the failure of the IAF in curbing the Katyusha launches.

These two events mean one thing, namely that this war is not nearing its end. Israel has no choice but defeating Hizballa, and this will clearly take time. Any other outcome will send a signal to the Arab world that Israel can be defeated, and will encourage military adventurism on the part of the Arabs and Iran. The said signal might even cause the fall of some of the moderate Arab governments on the hands of the masses smelling Israeli blood. And the failure of the International community in agreeing on a solution to the conflict means that there is no political defeat for Hizballa on the horizon.

The IDF has, so far, been quite aggressive from the air, but timid on the ground. It has committed limited resources in engaging Hizballa on the ground, has has paid for it in excessive casualties today. I expect a change in strategy in the next 48 hours where the IDF will accelerate its ground offensive by committing much larger forces, but victory for the IDF is most likely weeks away.

There are, however, three possible (but unlikely) events could lead to a rapid end to this war:

1. By some extraordinary intelligence feat, Israel is able to decimate the Hizballa leadership by hitting their secret bunkers.
2. An Israeli blunder causes a large number of civilian casualties, putting enormous pressure on Israel and its allies to accept a cease fire. Such a blunder will become increasingly likely as the IDF intensifies and accelerates its offensive.
   
3. An incident takes place that threatens to expand the war regionally, such as a skirmish between Israeli and Syrian forces.

Regardless of the scenario, one thing is for sure: There is more suffering ahead for the Lebanese civilians.