Is Lebanon Missing Another Opportunity?

Day 11 of the tit-for-tat war between Israel and Hizballa has just come to an end and there is no clear winner. Hizballa's ability to lob rockets into Israel does not seem to have been hindered despite the hundreds of sorties by the IAF. Missiles are still raining by the dozens on Northern Israel, including Haifa. Israel has scored a point by taking the hill-top village of Maroun El Ras after fierce combat and suffering 6 dead.

While there is still no clear winner, there is a clear loser: Lebanon. The country has suffered close to 400 civilian deaths, its infrastructure severely damaged, its factories on fire and a promising touristic summer wasted. Further, Lebanon has suffered severe reputational damage in the eyes of businesses planning to establish themselves there, and tourists planning to visit.

The worst part of this tragedy is that it might be in vain. Initial hope that the Israeli onslaught would bring an end of Hizballa is waning. Israel's vengeful air campaign has destroyed many targets that cannot be linked to Hizballa, including:

• The Beirut Airport
• Practically every bridge in Lebanon
• Lebanese Army barracks and positions, the same Lebanese Army that is supposed to disarm Hizballa and deploy in Southern Lebanon.
• Numerous factories, including a newly-built milk bottling facility
• Telecommunication towers and TV relay stations belonging to moderate and Christian stations.

This extensive collateral damage is creating, at best, increased animosity towards Israel, and at worst, increased support for Hizballa. Nasrallah's organization is not close to being dismantled, and is gaining support on the Arab street.

Sadly, the worst sin is probably being committed by the Lebanese Leadership. By not isolating Hizblla politically and pressuring it to release the Israeli hostages and stopping its attacks against Israel, Lebanon in ensuring that the onslaught continues, and that Hizballa remains a thorn in Lebanon's side.

The ultimate irony of the story is that Lebanon's loss is the gain of countries such as Syria and Iran. Hotels in major Syrian cities are booked at capacity, its airport is busy as a beehive. Iran on the other hand is benefiting from the increase in oil prices, and by some estimates, Iran has made about 500 million dollars out of the "July War".

Day 3: Hizballa 1; Israel 0

Written 7/14/2006 -- 10:30 AM EST
On the third day after the cross-border raid conducted by Hizbullah and which led to the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, the score is still 1-0 in the favor of the Shiite group. The Israeli reaction has been, so far, the equivalent of a violent chest beating, concentrating vengefully on Lebanese infrastructure targets and inflicting virtually no pain on Hizbullah. The IDF has, so far, not been even able to silence the Hizbullah TV station, Al Manar, despite the generous use of its offensive triad in the air, on the ground, and over the sea. Hizbullah, on the other hand, has showered Northern Israel with rockets, reaching Haifa for the first time.

Despite its relative lack of means, Nasrallah's group has also exhibited a keen knowledge of the location of strategic civilian and military assets in Israel, scoring direct hits on Israeli military installations deep into Israel. Today, Israel finds itself in desperate need to equalize the score, take the initiative and show progress to the civilian populations in the Galilee.

Clearly, escalating its assault on the infrastructure of Lebanon will yield no positive results. The weak Lebanese central government has neither the will nor the means to deal with Hizbullah. Any direct action against Hizbullah will cause irreparable damage to Lebanon's fragile unity, since the Nasrallah's army enjoys the support of the Shiite masses. Further, the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by Syria and Hizbullah during the last two decades, and does not have the military capability to deal with terrorist group.

What Israel needs, is to recover the initiative, bloody Hizbullah's face and gain international support in marginalizing the group. One way to accomplish this feat is through a limited ground offensive that will force Hizbullah into more conventional warfare where Tsahal can take full advantage of its armor, artillery and air force. This will surely inflict
casualties on the Hizbullah side, disrupt its rocket launching activities and open the way for deploying a peace-keeping force in Southern Lebanon that will shield Northern Israel and sap Hizbullah's raison d'etre. Having
the Lebanese border secured by a capable UN-sponsored, capable, peacekeeping force will go a long way in securing a Lebanese and international consensus to disarm the last remaining Lebanese militia.

Dealing Hizbullah a defeat on the ground will also convince its supporters that it is not the capable defense force that will safeguard their villages in the South. Such a ground offensive is not without risks. It will clearly cost the IDF a number of casualties, and will result in collateral damage in Southern Lebanon that will yield in a high diplomatic cost to Israel. Further, the International Community, led by the US, needs to be ready to quickly provide a neutral peacekeeping force that will promptly replace Tsahal in Southern Lebanon, in order to spare Israel and Lebanon another "Security Zone" fiasco.

What remains to be seen is whether Olmert and his coalition have the courage and political capital to retake the initiative, take decisive action against Hizbullah and, once an for all, provide security to the inhabitants of the Israeli North.