Many analysts have speculated on who won this latest Middle Eastern war. A majority thinks the Hizballa David defeated the Israeli Goliath.
Before we debate who the winner is, let's state who the clear loser is: Lebanon. With over a thousand deaths, a devastated economy, a seriously damaged infrastructure, and the end of an foreseeable tourist boom, Lebanon is the big loser of this war.
The world, however, wants to know who the winner is, and doesn't care much for losers. The two candidates are Israel and Hiballa.
Israel's biggest loss in this war is its deterrence. For a whole month, and to the last day, Israel was not able to even reduce the itensity of the Katyushas striking its North. It was unable to stop Al Manar (Hizballa's TV station) from broadcasting, and suffered relatively heavy losses. The myths of the omnipotence of the Israeli Mossad, the supreme power of the Israeli Air Force and the indestructibility of the Merkava tank have been shattered.
Hizballa's biggest loss was also deterrence. The thousands of rockets and missiles it fired on Israel cause relatively little damage and few casulaties. Ironically, over half of the deaths on the Israeli side were Arabs. This is bad news for Iran who was counting on this deterrence in preventing the US and Israel from hitting its nuclear intallations.
On the ground, the two sides had reached a stalemate. Israel seemed unable to launch its customary lightining fast offensive and was bogged down for a while around Bint Jbeil and Maroun al Ras. Israel's armored corps took the brunt of the casulaties, with pictures reminiscent of the Yom Kipur war. But Israel was able to prove, after some hesitation, that it could strike anywhere in Lebanon through its daring comando operations, in the Baalbeck region and around Tyre. The Israelis were even able to capture a number of Hizballa operatives during these raids.
From a number's perspective, Israel has captured over a dozen Hizballa operatives, a much higher number than the two Israelis captured at the beginning of the war. While Hizballa has kept its casualties secret, there is little doubt that the Shiite militia has suffered heavier losses than the Israeli side.
The reason why there is no clear winner or loser in this war is that the war has not ended. The International Community has just pressed the pause button for a while...
Sunday, August 20, 2006
On Hizballa's generosity
Hizballa's generosity towards the civilians who lost their homes is a smart move. It is money well spent by Iran who made a bundle when oil prices jumped as a result of the Hizballa-Israel war.
$12,000 is a good sum of money in Lebanon, families can easily survive for 12 months until their houses are rebuilt by Hizballa's various organizations.
The Iranian proxy in Lebanon will not lose any popularity in its areas of Southern Lebanon and Beirut's Southern suburbs, at least not among the people whose only loss was personal property. But how will Hizballa compensate those who lost loved ones in the fruitless war it initiated? And how will Hizballa compensate the rest of Lebanon for the billions of dollars lost due to a ruined tourist season and the damage to the country's infrastructure? There, Hizballa will not win any contests. And those who stood by Hizballa (e.g. General Michel Aoun) are in an indefensible position. They are no less guilty than Nasrallah!
May the Lebanese vote wisely in the next elections.
$12,000 is a good sum of money in Lebanon, families can easily survive for 12 months until their houses are rebuilt by Hizballa's various organizations.
The Iranian proxy in Lebanon will not lose any popularity in its areas of Southern Lebanon and Beirut's Southern suburbs, at least not among the people whose only loss was personal property. But how will Hizballa compensate those who lost loved ones in the fruitless war it initiated? And how will Hizballa compensate the rest of Lebanon for the billions of dollars lost due to a ruined tourist season and the damage to the country's infrastructure? There, Hizballa will not win any contests. And those who stood by Hizballa (e.g. General Michel Aoun) are in an indefensible position. They are no less guilty than Nasrallah!
May the Lebanese vote wisely in the next elections.
What will happen on August 22nd?
There have been many theories as to what Iran might do on August 22nd. Here are some of the facts:
-August 22nd corresponds to the Moslem holiday of Lailat Al Miraj. The holiday occurs on 27 Rajab of the Islamic calendar, and it commemorates the Prophet Muhammed's ascension to heaven. Moslems believe that on that night the prophet was awakened by the angel Gabriel, and then accompanied by Gabriel, the Prophet flew on a winged horse to Jerusalem. There, on the ruins of the temple of Solomon, he prayed with Moses, Jesus and others before ascending to heaven.
-Iran's Ahmadinejad promised the UN that he will provide an answer to the latest proposal for Iran to stop uranium enrichment.
-Like his Lebanese ally, Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad believes he is on a divine mission leading to the victory of Islam.
-There have been rumors in the "intelligence community" that Iran was preparing something "big".
Here's my take on this: Religious extremists tend to like using symbolic dates for perpetrating their grand acts, so something might be brewing for the 27th of Rajab. But will Iran strike Israel or the US? It is unlikely, because the Iranian ayatollahs might be crazy, but they're not stupid. After all, the Iranians invented chess. An attack on either the US or Israel will bring massive retaliation on Iran, possibly destabilizing the regime of the ayatollahs.
If a big thing were to happen, it might be the Iranians testing a nuclear warhead, and thus joining the nuclear Club. This would be quite a coup since Israel and the US would be unlikely to launch an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities once Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs get the bomb. The US would have missed yet another opportunity of stopping a rogue state from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The scenario would be even more interesting if Iran and North Korea test together on August 22nd: there have been signs of suspicious activity at some North Korean nuclear sites...
-August 22nd corresponds to the Moslem holiday of Lailat Al Miraj. The holiday occurs on 27 Rajab of the Islamic calendar, and it commemorates the Prophet Muhammed's ascension to heaven. Moslems believe that on that night the prophet was awakened by the angel Gabriel, and then accompanied by Gabriel, the Prophet flew on a winged horse to Jerusalem. There, on the ruins of the temple of Solomon, he prayed with Moses, Jesus and others before ascending to heaven.
-Iran's Ahmadinejad promised the UN that he will provide an answer to the latest proposal for Iran to stop uranium enrichment.
-Like his Lebanese ally, Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad believes he is on a divine mission leading to the victory of Islam.
-There have been rumors in the "intelligence community" that Iran was preparing something "big".
Here's my take on this: Religious extremists tend to like using symbolic dates for perpetrating their grand acts, so something might be brewing for the 27th of Rajab. But will Iran strike Israel or the US? It is unlikely, because the Iranian ayatollahs might be crazy, but they're not stupid. After all, the Iranians invented chess. An attack on either the US or Israel will bring massive retaliation on Iran, possibly destabilizing the regime of the ayatollahs.
If a big thing were to happen, it might be the Iranians testing a nuclear warhead, and thus joining the nuclear Club. This would be quite a coup since Israel and the US would be unlikely to launch an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities once Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs get the bomb. The US would have missed yet another opportunity of stopping a rogue state from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The scenario would be even more interesting if Iran and North Korea test together on August 22nd: there have been signs of suspicious activity at some North Korean nuclear sites...
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