The Lebanese Curse: Reliance on Foreigners

Lebanon has been cursed twice: once by having Syria and Israel as neighbors, and the second time by having its people rely on foreign powers to solve its problems.

This probably dates back to the Phoenicians, and still stays embedded deep into our DNA. During the Ottoman Empire, the Sunnis had the power since they were supported by the Ottomans. The French supported the Maronites, the Russians and the Greek supported the Orthodox, the British supported the Druze. When the Ottomans had problems with the Russians, the Orthodox were in trouble, when the French and the British didn't get along, the Maronites and Druze butchered each other, etc.

This is still largely the case today, but the alliances are more dynamic, and often confusing. The Shiite community relies on Iran and, to some extent, Syria. The Sunnis rely on Saudi Arabia and the US. The Druze are currently aligned with the US, but will quickly switch alliances in due time. The Christians are confused: some are allies with France and the US, others are allied with Syria and Iran. Due to the tensions in the Middle East, the various Lebanese denominations are at odds with each other. We are always hoping that regional detente will bring peace and stability to the country. We monitor closely each peace summit, each statement by such or such Foreign Minister, looking for a solution to our internal problems.

How did we get there? And more importantly, how do we get out of this status quo?
I believe there are a number of root causes to this state of affairs. There are:

1. Lack of true nationalism. Because Lebanon had been part of the Ottoman Empire for over 400 years until less than 100 years ago, it is a bit normal for us to be a bit confused about our national identity.

2. Lack of a vision for Lebanon. As Lebanese, we don't really know what sort of Lebanon we want. This has never been discussed in political forums, except in destructive ways. Various political leaders have declared our identity as being Arab and wanted to join some form of Arab union, others have declared their allegiance to the Muslim Ummah (nation), others want a regional unity as part of a Greater Syria, others praise their Phoenician ancestry etc. ad nauseam.

3. Lack of trust. Various Lebanese religious groups (and we have a full mosaic worth) don't trust each other, and in order to protect themselves from other groups, they forge alliances with outside powers.

4. Weak central government. For most of its modern history, the Lebanese government has been weak, and various political and sectarian groups felt that they had to take matters into their own hands in order to protect their communities' interests and well-being.

Our hope is for a person, party or political movement to be able to articulate a national vision, and provide a strong government that will allow the various parties on the Lebanese scene to trust each other. A strong educational curriculum that teaches the young generations about their civic duties and sense of belonging to one nation will ensure that future generation will not fall into the same traps as our ancestors, parents and us.

Do We All Want The Same Lebanon?

Do all Lebanese want the same Lebanon?

I believe that the overwhelming majority of Lebanese fundamentally want the same Lebanon. I wish I could organize a referendum on the following principles for the Lebanese to realize that they really want the same thing.

Let's state these fundamentals:

1. Lebanon as a country for all Lebanese, one and indivisible

2. Lebanon should be a democracy, where individual freedoms are respected

3. Lebanon should practice free economic principles and create a positive investment climate

4. Lebanon should declare its neutrality in all world conflicts, and become a true Switzerland of the East

5. Lebanese living abroad should have voting rights in Lebanon

6. The government should offer an alternative to the religious courts that govern personal life in Lebanon (e.g. marriage, divorce, inheritance etc.) This will facilitate the transition of the country to a modern society from a highly sectarian one, and facilitate intermarriage across religious sects.


I believe that at least 75% of Lebanese would agree with the above principles. But then, the other 25% might be the ones with guns...

Aoun Sold His Soul To The Devil... Again!

It is still unclear who actually won the parliamentary elections in the Metn, former President Gemayel or the Aounist figurehead, Camille Khuri. No one had heard of Mr. Khuri before his nomination by Aoun, and the little he has said in public clearly indicates that he is indeed a pitiful candidate.

Who the victor is, is not as important as what the election told us about the state of the Christian leadership in Lebanon. Here are some findings:

• Aoun allied himself with the Devil, again, in an attempt to win this election. His allies include Michel Murr, Syria's foremost agent in Lebanon, and one of Lebanon's most corrupt politicians. Along with Murr, Aoun's allies include the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), and the Tashnag (the leading Armenian political party who owes many favors to Murr)
  
  
• The Aounists are clearly losing popularity compared to the last parliamentary elections where they scored an overwhelming victory. This time, they had to resort to the "Naturalized" Syrians, bedouins and others. The "Naturalized" were given their Lebanese citizenship by Michel Murr when he was Minister of the Interior during Syria's occupation of Lebanon, and subsequently serve as a Murr's private electorate.
  
  
• In addition to the "Naturalized", Murr's Tashnag allies resorted to electoral fraud in several areas, including their fiefdom of Burj Hammoud. Such fraud included voting by the deceased and by electors who had long emigrated from Lebanon.
  
  
• The elections were conducted in a reasonably civilized way, away from the violence that many expected. This is a possible indicator that the Lebanese Christians are reaching a certain degree of maturity, but also a clear tribute to the Lebanese Army's capability to maintain order.
  
  
• Finally, and most importantly, these elections are a clear indication of the Christian Leadership void in Lebanon. Many who have voted for Aoun's candidate did so in protest against the weakness of the March 14 Christian leadership. It is interesting to note that Camille Khuri did not win the majority of vote in his hometown of Ain Alaq. The few people who really knew him voted against him.
  

The Need For A New Christian (And Lebanese) Leadership

The Lebanese Christians are today in a sorry state, as they are plagued by the worst leaders they have had in a long time.

The same duo that divided the Christians in 89-90 and allowed Syria to occupy the last free areas of Lebanon is still exerting its divisive influence, weakening the Christians to a point that they are marginalized.

Michel Aoun is siding with Hizballa, the Syro-Iranian puppet militia, and with other remnants of Syria's influence in Lebanon. The fact that he is doing this because he was somehow isolated my the March 14 alliance is a poor excuse. The Pro-Syrian coalition that Aoun has joined is implementing a policy that would ultimately bring back the Syrians to Lebanon, and turn Lebanon, once again, into a Syro-Iranian satellite state.

Samir Geagea and the other Christian members of the March 14 alliance have made a pact with the Sunni leadership of the Hariri clan, which has strong ties to Saudi Arabia. Geagea's Sunni allies have a history of marginalizing the Lebanese Christians, and of being sympathetic to some of the extremist movements linked to global terror.

While about 20% of the Lebanese Christians are either staunch Aoun or Geagea supporters, the vast majority longs for a more genuine and stronger, unifying Christian leadership. A quick survey of the remaining Christian leaders clearly shows that there is not one person with the charisma, power base and financial means to lead the Christians out of this crisis.

The only remaining option is the formation of a new party grouping the Lebanese in Lebanon and the Diaspora. Such a party would answer the aspirations of not only the Lebanese Christians, but also their fellow Moslems who have been disenfranchised by their respective leaderships. This would include, for example, the Shiites who do not support Hizballa, the Sunnis who don't support the Hariri clan and the Druze who don't support Jumblatt.

I believe that it is not very hard to unify the Lebanese (especially the enlightened ones among them). Assume a new party emerges with the following agenda and principles:

-A democratic Lebanon that is for and by its people
-A pluralistic Lebanon that respects all of its communities and treats them equally, accommodating their specificities
-A nationalistic Lebanon that is under no foreign influence
-A neutral Lebanon that takes no part in any of the regional or global conflicts. Such a Lebanon would have no enemies and would strive to maintain good relations with its neighbors and beyond
-A prosperous Lebanon that uses its resources effectively, and has no tolerance towards corruption
-A modern Lebanon ruled by modern laws, implemented by a modern bureaucracy, leveraging the latest technologies
-A clean Lebanon that is environmentally sound and fights all aspects of pollution

While such principles may sound naive and impossible to achieve, they are also the founding principles of the nations we admire most and we emigrate to. The Lebanese have a tremendous potential as individuals, and this potential will be boosted by the synergy of a united people.

Good Friday: No Longer A Lebanese Holiday!

In a shocking move, the Lebanese government has removed Good Friday from the list of official Lebanese holidays. We now have the commemoration of Hariri's assassination as an official holiday, but not the death of Jesus Christ.

It is outrageous of the Lebanese government to remove the most sacred Christian Holy Day from the list of recognized official holidays. What is most outrageous, however, is that none of the Christian members of the "majority" opposed the move.

It is unclear whether this move is a pure act of Sunni bigotry against their Christian allies, or a calculated act to weaken the government. I am sure Syria, Iran and Hizballa are thanking Allah for this senseless act of stupidity that will weaken Christian support for the government and affect the outcome of the upcoming partial parliamentary elections to replace MP's Gemayel and Eido.

It is time for the Christian leaders of the majority to pressure the Saniora government to reverse this decision.

In the long term, this is a clear indication that the Lebanese Christians need a new leadership if they are planning to remain relevant in the country of the Cedars.

Note that the government's decision was later reversed after much protest from a wide spectrum of Christian leaderships.

UNIFIL Attack, Hizablla's First Step ToTake Back Control Of The Border

The attack against the Spanish contingent of the UNIFIL was expected. The Lebanese authorities have been warning of such plots. I even expected attacks against UNIFIL shortly after their deployment.

The purpose of the attack is obvious. Iran wants to reinforce its leverage against Israel (and the West) by being able to wage war against the Jewish State on two fronts, one in the South in Gaza, the other in the North, in South Lebanon. Hamas has now a free hand to arm itself and attack Israel after routing the PLO from Gaza. Hizballa is about to do the same by expelling UNIFIL from South Lebanon through a series of bloody terrorist attacks.

Hizballa's responsibility in this incident is unquestionable, even though the actual perpetrators might have been members of some pro-Syrian Palestinian group. El Khiyam is a Hizballa bastion and nothing happens there without the knowledge of Iran's proxy in Lebanon.

I expect more such attacks against UNIFIL, culminating in a very bloody operation similar to the one that caused the Marines and French paratroopers to abandon their mission in Lebanon or the one that forced the UN out of Iraq.

I do hope that UNIFIL takes the appropriate measures to reinforce its positions and intensify its patrols to prevent such attacks in the future, and prove the UN's resolve in performing its mission in Lebanon despite heavy losses.

This Summer is shaping up to be a difficult one for Lebanon, and the Saniora government may not survive the Syro-Iranian onslaught without serious help from the West, the UN and moderate Arab nations.

Elias El Murr's Premature Statement

The Lebanese Defense Minister's surprising statement, announcing the end of military activities in Nahr El Bared, is reminiscent of President Bush's now infamous victory announcement regarding Iraq.

And while Bush did not predict the intensity of the Iraqi insurrection against US forces, El Murr must know that the cleanup in Nahr El Bared is far from complete.

And if El Murr is counting on the other militias in the camp to surrender the Fatah El Islam terrorists, I believe he will be sorely disappointed. There is no substitute to the Army cleaning up the Palestinian "camp"; any alternatives will have disastrous consequences on the stability of Lebanon and the morale of the Lebanese Army.

Deal or Victory in Nahr El Bared?

The Lebanese Defense Minister, Elias El Murr, declared a short while ago the end of military operation in Nahr El Bared, indicating that all Fath El Islam positions were destroyed.

Is this really the end of Fah El Islam or is this announcement the result of an under the table deal?

The following facts make the Defense Minister's declaration suspect:

• The latest information on the military operations that were available earlier today indicate that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were still mopping up terrorist positions in the "New Camp" and had not entered the "Old Camp" yet.
  
  
• Syria declared it is threatening to shut its border with Lebanon. This is a typical Syrian move when it needs to pressure Lebanon into submission. In the absence of a peace treaty with Israel, Lebanon will remain hostage to using Syria as its only land passageway.
  
  
• In a shocking reversal, El Murr declared that the government had no proof of a relationship between Syria and Fath El Islam.
  
  
• The Palestinian mediators who have been trying to negotiate a cease-fire in the "camp" stated that Fath El Islam was declaring a cease-fire.

A deal that would allow the leaders of Fath El Islam to escape the Lebanese justice system would be a severe blow to the Lebanese Army who suffered 75 dead and more than 150 wounded in the fighting to eradicate the terrorists from Nahr El Bared. Such a deal would signal to other terrorist groups that the Lebanese government is weak, and lacks the resolve to control the country.

Finally, it is worth noting that Elias El Murr was, like his father, a staunch Syrian ally before the Cedars Revolution. He is also "President" Lahoud's brother-in-law.

Enough is Enough. The Army Needs to Finish Off the Vermin

The Lebanese Army needs to finish off the Fatah Al Islam vermin, whatever the political cost. Every building serving as a shelter to the vermin needs to be brought down. The Army needs to use flame throwers to cleanup the vermin remnants from the so called "camp".

And since the Palestinian camps cannot police themselves, they need to be disarmed by whatever means necessary. We have tolerated the cancer of Palestinian armed presence in Lebanon for too long. I think an overwhelming majority of Lebanese are finally united against the Palestinian arms in Lebanon.

If a Palestinian wants to carry weapons, they should be sent to Gaza to show their military prowess against the Israeli armed forces. And they are welcome to take their friends and relatives with them!

Where are Hizballa's weapons that are supposedly meant to defend Lebanon and its Army? Why is Hizballa still tacitly supporting the Palestinian miscreants in Lebanon? The answer is simple: Hizballa is not a Lebanese organization, but an Iranian one, with one purpose: extending the Iranian revolution to the Levant.

Why Is It Taking The Lebanese Army So Long?

There has been much speculation as to why it has taken the Lebanese Army so long to crush the Fatah Al Islam (FAI) fighters, knowing that there were initially as few as 300 of them.


Here are some of the reasons according to a retired Lebanese Army officer who is still well connected in Yarze:

• The FAI fighters are well dug-in and willing to fight to the end, rather than surrender. Further, they have nowhere to go, and their options are either to surrender or die fighting.
  
  
• The terrain is quite difficult, with narrow streets and tightly packed buildings filled with booby traps.
  
  
• The Army is trying hard to limit civilian casualties and limit the amount of destruction caused by the fighting. This is in big part in trying to prevent the fighting from spreading to the other Palestinian "camps" and to maintain the support of friendly Arab nations.
  
  
• The Army wants to limit the number of casualties in the ranks of its troops.
  
  
• The Army believes that time is on its side, at least to a certain extent and is willing to sacrifice time in order to attain the other objectives stated above.

With respect to the military supplies the Army has received from friendly nations, they do not provide it with a decisive advantage. Most of the supplies that were flown in consisted of body armor, helmets, rifles and ammunition. And while the 2 Gazelle gunships provided by the UAE are a good morale boost, they are only moderately effective in a dense urban setting.

Lebanese Army Puts Military Aid to Use

During the last 48 hours, Lebanese Army started putting to use the equipment it has received from Jordan, the UAE and the US. The most visible element of this aid are the two Gazelle helicopters that were delivered by the UAE, which still bear their original desert colors. The Lebanese Air Force did possess a number of Gazelles in the 80's, and it is therefore able to maintain and fly the helicopters without much lead time.


Other, less spectacular gear includes new US-style helmets, body armor and M4 rifles. The M4 is a shorter version of the M16 that is more convenient for troops riding in the cramped confines on an APC, and more practical for the close combat that is taking place in the narrow streets of the Palestinian "camp".

Nasrallah Shows His True Colors

By warning the Lebanese Army not to enter any Palestinian camps, Hizballa's Nasrallah shows his true colors and his real allegiance.

Nasrallah find himself in a position of indirectly defending a group that is responsible for many terrorist attacks in Lebanon that killed a number of innocent citizens, and promotes imposing an Islamic state in the country. Fatah Al Islam (FAI) is also a group controlled by Damascus, with the aim of creating chaos in Lebanon, in preparation for Syria to reclaim its control of its neighbor.

Why would Nasrallah take such a position, at a time where all the Lebanese are supportive of the Army? The answer is simple: He is obeying orders he received from his Iranian and Syrian masters.

It will be interesting to see how the Aounist camp will react to Hizballah position. The Aounists have, after all, been staunch supporters of the Army's actions in Tripoli.

The PLO Needs to Expel Fatah Al Islam from Nahr El Bared

The PLO representative in Lebanon, Abbas Zaki, expressed support for the Lebanese Authorities and pledged full cooperation with the Lebanese government in supressing what he called the Fatah Al Islam (FAI) "phenomenon". He even stated that he didn't oppose the Lebanese Armed Forces entering Nahr El Bared. This is a pivotal first in the history or Lebanese-Palestinian relations.

What the PLO needs to do is to join action to its words and expel Fatah Al Islam from Nahr El Bared and other Plaestinian "camps". The PLO needs to act fast, all the more so, since the FAI are using the Palestinian civilian population as human shields, and went as far as preventing rescue workers from evacuating the civilian casualties from the "camp". This was done in a criminal attempt at creating a humanitarian disaster that would force the Lebanese government to stop its assault on the terrorist group.

If the PLO cares about the well-being of their civilian constituents in Nahr El Bared, they need to act sooner rather than later. Every hour means more casualties and more misery for the innocent Palestinians of the "camp".

The Lebanese Army Must Enter Nahr El Bared

The Nahr El Bared Palestinian "camp" has clearly become a hornet's nest festering with all sorts of anti-Lebanese subversive elements.

The bloody clashes of the last 24 hours hours and subsequent bomb blast in Ashrafieh are a clear indication of the danger those elements represent.

The Fatah Al Islam (FAI) group deserves no mercy. Many of the soldiers who were killed were stopped at FAI readblocks while they were on leave and un-armed. Furthermore, the group's objectives are nothing short of creating mayhem in Lebanon, following the orders of their masters in Damascus.

The Lebanese government's only option to deal with these elements is to enter Nahr El Bared and cleanse it from the various terrorist and criminal elements who take refuge there. Going into the "camp" will require a degree of courage from the government, and some diplomacy in order to lift the ban imposed on Lebanese security forces from entering such "camps" by the infamous Cairo Accord.

A successful operation in Nahr El Bared will go a long way in establishing the credibility and resolve of the Saniora government, and regaining the pride and morale of the Lebanese Army who made painful sacrifices in the last 24 hours.

A decisive action needs to be undertaken if nothing else but to give meaning to the memory of the soldiers who died performing their duty. We owe it to them to obliterate the Fatah El Islam from Lebanon, once and for all.

Anything else would render meaningless the death of our soldiers.