Red Indians?

Druze leader Walid Jumblat compared the Maronites and the Druze with the Red Indians (meaning Native Americans).

The Christians of Lebanon are certainly weaker in power and numbers. They are weaker in number because they have the skills to immigrate and be more successful outside of Lebanon than inside. This is the blessing and the curse brought to us by our excellent education system, and our dedication, as a community, to giving our children the best education possible.

We are weaker politically (and non-existent militarily) because of the Aoun - Geagea conflict (really a conflict between the Aounists and most of the other Christian parties). While the ideologies have evolved over the years, the schism still exists. It is based less on ideology than strategy: Do the Christians align themselves with Hizballa, Iran and Syria or the more moderate Sunnis, supported by the Saudis, and the West.

So far Aoun's alliances have proved to be much more useful to him than the March 14 Christians alliances. His Hizballa and Syro-Iranian allies, while using him, are granting him increasing levels of power and seats in the Lebanese government. On the other hand, the March 14 Christians are getting scraps, leftover from the big dogs.

The Dawn of a "New" Government?

It appears that after a 4-month deadlock, a "new" government will be formed in Lebanon within the next hours or days. This is good news, the lack of government caused much uncertainty in the country, and a degree of paralysis within government institutions.

The not so good news is the composition of the government: Hizballa and its allies will get all the ministries that they wanted, including the key Telecom ministry, allowing the Iranian proxy to spy on the communications of the Lebanese, and to maintain a parallel communications network that is beyond the reach of the Lebanese government.

This "new" government is likely to bear much resemblance to the previous one, despite the results of the parliamentary elections that won the pro-democracy March 14 movement the majority of parliament seats.

Not much change is expected as a result. Hizballa keeps its weapons and its capability to bring war upon the Lebanese. The country will remain deadlocked, especially with respect to badly-needed reform. And finally the Lebanese will remain hostage to the overall situation in the Middle East and the cold war between Iran and the West.

Mention of Anne Frank Censored in Lebanon School

Le Figaro, a leading French newspaper, reported today that Hizballa forced a Lebanese private school to censor history books containing passages from Anne Frank's diary.

The article can be found here: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2009/11/06/01011-20091106FILWWW00466-anne-frank-censuree-au-liban.php

Anne Frank was a Jewish child who lived in hiding in the Netherlands to escape Nazi persecution during WWII, and died in a concentration camp. Her diary which was uncovered posthumously after the war offers a poignant testimony of the suffering engendered by the Nazis.

For those Lebanese who still believe that Hizballa is open-minded, and will not interfere in the private lives of Lebanese citizens to impose its warped views, this should be a wake-up call.

Increased Intel Activity - Ominous Sign?

The increased intelligence/covert activity in South Lebanon, combined with regional events, could be telltale signs of upcoming military activity in the region.

The suspicious explosion in Tayr Felsay (at a suspected Hizballa arms depot), watched by an Israeli drone that just happened to be there is intriguing. Add to it yesterday's explosions of Israeli "spying devices" allegedly detonated by Israeli drones, thicken the plot. The devices seemed to be aimed at Hizballa's extensive communications network.

The Israelis claim these were staged by the pro-Iranian group to detract attention from the Tayr Felsay explosion, which caught the Hizballa red handed with missiles in the supposedly demilitarized zone. The Israeli theory is logical, especially that UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army were granted unfettered access to the sites, which is unusual.

Add to the above the regional tensions created by the successful attack aimed at Iranian Revolutionary Guard (RG) leadership in Sarbaz in the southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province. The suicide blast killed Nour-Ali Shoushtari, the second highest ranking officer of the RG, and the man in charge of Iran's foreign military operations in Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Finally this is all happening withe the clock ticking inexorably towards a nuclear Iran. Indeed, the Iranians who invented chess, are constantly outmaneuvering the West in order to gain the only potentially scarce material for their nuclear program: time.

It is becoming clear that unless Israel takes action in extremis, that a nuclear Iran is a foregone conclusion.