The Republicans are poised to control the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate within the next 48 hours. The loss of his super-majority in Congress will tie Barak Hussein Obama's hands domestically, and will force him to concentrate on foreign affairs in order to project leadership and have a chances at a second mandate.Three world issues are significant enough to the American people that a breakthrough in any of them could significantly boost Obama's popularity:
1. The Palestinian issue. If Obama is able to convince the Palestinians and Israelis to make peace leading to the creation of a Palestinian state, he would have achieved a miracle. But Obama is unlikely to succeed where so many of his predecessors have failed, especially that the current situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories is not currently favorable to a settlement. The Israelis have moved too far to the right, and the Palestinians are weak and divided.
2. China. The American people are increasingly seeing China as a threat to US jobs and the US economy. A tough policy towards China might prove quite popular with an overwhelming majority of Americans. That is, until they realize that most of the goods they purchase will become more expensive. Indeed, most of what the Americans consume is made in China.
3. Iran. Most Americans view Iran as a threat to their security and the security of their allies in the Middle East. A limited war to destroy the Iranian nuclear infrastructure, and the Revolutionary Guard's military might can prove quite popular. No ground troops will be required, at least in principle, the whole operations with be conducted using the Navy and Air Force, with possible special operations intervention to destroy Iranian anti-ship missiles in the islands of the straights of Hormuz, and on the Iranian coastline. Of course such an operation will likely go in pair with an Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon, and possibly an Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. An added complication is Iraq where the Iranians can stir a lot of trouble, and where the US might be forced to commit land forces.
Will Obama have the courage to undertake any of the above, or any other major world initiative? The (near) future will tell. Obama has about a year before the next presidential campaign goes in full swing.
