Lebanon: Is There Any Hope?

All the media and political discussions regarding Lebanon focus on tactical matters.

I believe that the real problem of Lebanon is not General Michel Aoun, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, Samir Geagea or Saad Hariri. It's about the following fundamental problems:

1- Lack of a single vision of Lebanon. What Lebanon do we really want? What form of government, what foreign policy, what economic policies?

2- Lack of trust. Each side in Lebanon fears that the other side is out to destroy it. This is one reason why dialogue is never fruitful.

3- Each side in Lebanon tries to weaken or destroy the other side using a foreign power. This is due in part to #2, and a preemptive move to avoid being destroyed. This is akin to the mid 1800's when each community had its "protector".

4- The Lebanese public, in general, is extremely immature politically. It keeps electing the same scumbags, and believing in the same conspiracy theories. Some of the reasons for this are the points mentioned above:

#1: They have no vision for a Lebanon.

#2: They believe the scumbags will protect them against against annihilation by the other side.

#3: They have evidence that the other side is trying to annihilate them by siding with "evil foreigners"

The real question is how do we get out of this vicious circle? Are we doomed to repeat the same mistakes that have been plaguing us ever since the Phoenicians city states used to quarrel and undermine each other using foreign powers? Are these problems burnt deep into our collective DNA?

Ben Laden's Death: A Deal for the Future of Afghanistan?

There is no doubt that Osama Ben Laden's death is a great victory for the US and a morale blow for Al Qaeda.

Based on the location of the compound, and its size, it is more than likely that the Pakistani military was sheltering and protecting Ben Laden.

Based on the size and other characteristics of the operation to kill him, it is reasonably clear that the Pakistani military is no longer protecting Ben Laden.

Could Ben Laden have been the prize given to the Obama administration in order to let Pakistan have its way in Afghanistan? Is the death of Ben Laden a prelude to a deal allowing the Pakistani supported Taliban to take back Afghanistan, allowing US troops to return home?

The coming months will be telling.