Day 3: Hizballa 1; Israel 0

Written 7/14/2006 -- 10:30 AM EST
On the third day after the cross-border raid conducted by Hizbullah and which led to the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, the score is still 1-0 in the favor of the Shiite group. The Israeli reaction has been, so far, the equivalent of a violent chest beating, concentrating vengefully on Lebanese infrastructure targets and inflicting virtually no pain on Hizbullah. The IDF has, so far, not been even able to silence the Hizbullah TV station, Al Manar, despite the generous use of its offensive triad in the air, on the ground, and over the sea. Hizbullah, on the other hand, has showered Northern Israel with rockets, reaching Haifa for the first time.

Despite its relative lack of means, Nasrallah's group has also exhibited a keen knowledge of the location of strategic civilian and military assets in Israel, scoring direct hits on Israeli military installations deep into Israel. Today, Israel finds itself in desperate need to equalize the score, take the initiative and show progress to the civilian populations in the Galilee.

Clearly, escalating its assault on the infrastructure of Lebanon will yield no positive results. The weak Lebanese central government has neither the will nor the means to deal with Hizbullah. Any direct action against Hizbullah will cause irreparable damage to Lebanon's fragile unity, since the Nasrallah's army enjoys the support of the Shiite masses. Further, the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by Syria and Hizbullah during the last two decades, and does not have the military capability to deal with terrorist group.

What Israel needs, is to recover the initiative, bloody Hizbullah's face and gain international support in marginalizing the group. One way to accomplish this feat is through a limited ground offensive that will force Hizbullah into more conventional warfare where Tsahal can take full advantage of its armor, artillery and air force. This will surely inflict
casualties on the Hizbullah side, disrupt its rocket launching activities and open the way for deploying a peace-keeping force in Southern Lebanon that will shield Northern Israel and sap Hizbullah's raison d'etre. Having
the Lebanese border secured by a capable UN-sponsored, capable, peacekeeping force will go a long way in securing a Lebanese and international consensus to disarm the last remaining Lebanese militia.

Dealing Hizbullah a defeat on the ground will also convince its supporters that it is not the capable defense force that will safeguard their villages in the South. Such a ground offensive is not without risks. It will clearly cost the IDF a number of casualties, and will result in collateral damage in Southern Lebanon that will yield in a high diplomatic cost to Israel. Further, the International Community, led by the US, needs to be ready to quickly provide a neutral peacekeeping force that will promptly replace Tsahal in Southern Lebanon, in order to spare Israel and Lebanon another "Security Zone" fiasco.

What remains to be seen is whether Olmert and his coalition have the courage and political capital to retake the initiative, take decisive action against Hizbullah and, once an for all, provide security to the inhabitants of the Israeli North.