There have been many theories as to what Iran might do on August 22nd. Here are some of the facts:
-August 22nd corresponds to the Moslem holiday of Lailat Al Miraj. The holiday occurs on 27 Rajab of the Islamic calendar, and it commemorates the Prophet Muhammed's ascension to heaven. Moslems believe that on that night the prophet was awakened by the angel Gabriel, and then accompanied by Gabriel, the Prophet flew on a winged horse to Jerusalem. There, on the ruins of the temple of Solomon, he prayed with Moses, Jesus and others before ascending to heaven.
-Iran's Ahmadinejad promised the UN that he will provide an answer to the latest proposal for Iran to stop uranium enrichment.
-Like his Lebanese ally, Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad believes he is on a divine mission leading to the victory of Islam.
-There have been rumors in the "intelligence community" that Iran was preparing something "big".
Here's my take on this: Religious extremists tend to like using symbolic dates for perpetrating their grand acts, so something might be brewing for the 27th of Rajab. But will Iran strike Israel or the US? It is unlikely, because the Iranian ayatollahs might be crazy, but they're not stupid. After all, the Iranians invented chess. An attack on either the US or Israel will bring massive retaliation on Iran, possibly destabilizing the regime of the ayatollahs.
If a big thing were to happen, it might be the Iranians testing a nuclear warhead, and thus joining the nuclear Club. This would be quite a coup since Israel and the US would be unlikely to launch an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities once Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs get the bomb. The US would have missed yet another opportunity of stopping a rogue state from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The scenario would be even more interesting if Iran and North Korea test together on August 22nd: there have been signs of suspicious activity at some North Korean nuclear sites...
Sunday, August 20, 2006
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