Will Israel Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary?

I see many similarities between today's Israel and the Kingdom of Jerusalem of the 11th century, and I often wonder whether Israel will face the same fate.

The Kingdom of Jerusalem was founded in 1099 as a result of the First Crusade. It was much larger than today's Israel, extending from Lebanon in the North to the Sinai Peninsula in the South. It included Jordan and parts of Syria in the East. Like Israel, it was established and governed by Europeans and was influenced by the Levantine culture. The Kingdom flourished, and became increasingly confident in its security, reaching the point of complacency. Its Moslem neighbors united under the banner of Jihad and led by a brilliant general, Saladdin retook Jerusalem in 1187. The Kindom of Jerusalem lasted a mere 88 years.

Israel is now 48 years old. It is a prosperous, mostly democratic country. Like the Kingdom of Jerusalem, it is surrounded by a sea of hostile, Moslem nations. Recent history has shown that Israel is now much less of a combative state, its population preferring comfort and prosperity to the sacrifices of war. Israel's neighbors have become smarter and more sophisticated. More dangerously, Jihad as an ideology, is taking hold throughout the Arab and Moslem world. Will Israel suffer the fate of the Kingdom of Jerusalem?

Until a few years ago, the answer would have been that this is unthinkable. After all, Israel has the ultimate trump card: tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Israel was also able to secure peace treaties with two of its neighbors, including the formidable Egypt. On the other hand, the nuclear club is, getting increasingly less exclusive, with thrid-world countries like India and Pakistan acquiring "The Bomb". But the ultimate danger will come from rogue states like North Korea and Iran who are governed by irrational ideologues.

Further, Israel's peace treaties will become worthless if the regimes in Egypt and Jordan are overthrown. The formidable Egyptian army, equipped with the latest Western technology and whose officers are being trained in West Point would pose an ominous threat to the existence of Israel. The Jordanian army, although smaller in size, has earned the respect of most Western military experts.

Israel is on a very dangerous and tenuous course and if the current trends endure, it might very well not celebrate its 100th birthday. All it will take is another Saladdin.