Moghniyeh: Who Did it and Why?

Imad Moghniyeh had a taste of his own poison when he was blown up in Damascus two days ago. He was killed by explosives, the way he, himself, killed thousands of people. The difference is that those who killed Moghniyeh wanted to avoid killing innocent civilians by placing a small charge is the car carrying the terrorist.

Many are wondering who killed the terror mastermind and Hizballa's military chief. Theories abound, but the consequences are clear:

• The death of Moghniyeh is both a blow to the morale of Hizballa and their operational capabilities. He was the terrorist organization's most trusted and capable operative.
  
  
• The locale of the attack on Moghniyeh is a double blow to the Syrian regime: they were caught hosting one of the most wanted terrorists alive on one hand, and they have failed to protect him on the other.
  
  
• The death of Moghniyeh is a clear signal to other terrorists that they cannot escape justice wherever they are.

The theories about the commandeers and perpetrators of Moghniyeh's killing are numerous:

1. The Israelis did it. This is the most likely theory, given that Israeli intelligence is well renowned for this type of very targeted and complex operations. This theory is especially likely since the operation is almost identical to the one, also is Damascus, that has taken the life of Islamic Jihad leader Ghaleb Ghali 4 years ago.
   
   
2. The Americans did it. This is a more unlikely scenario, despite the fact that the US has tried to kill Moghniyeh before. The US intelligence agencies tend to lack the capability to conduct such operations, even though such capabilities have been improving since 9/11.
   
   
3. Nasrallah did it. It is widely believed that the Iranians have relieved Nasrallah from his command of the military arm of Hizballa following the war with Israel in the Summer of 2006. It is also believed that this has caused a schism within the terrorist organization. Could this have been a way for Nasrallah to reassert himself as the supreme military and political leader of the "Islamic Resistance"?
   
   
4. The Syrians did it (scenario 1). The Syrian regime might have executed Moghniyeh in return for some major favor from the US and the West. Further, the Bush administration's almost simultaneous sanctions against the Syrian regime are nothing but a decoy in an attempt to protect the Syrian regime from any suspicion in the matter.
   
   
5. The Syrians did it (scenario 2). A rogue element in the Syrian security apparatus that is loyal to the Sunni majority (people loyal to Khaddam) might have conducted the operation at the request of Saudi Arabia or a Western Power (the US or France).

Other, less credible, theories include the French, the Lebanese Forces, the Kuwaitis etc.

The real question is: What next? When will Hizballa retaliate, against whom and how?