The initial headlines were anodyne: An armed clash occurred near Ouyoun Orghosh between two clans, the army intervened, made arrests and confiscated weapons and drugs.The area where the clash occurred is known for its vendettas and tribal clashes. It is also known for hashish cultivation and processing. Therefore the event was almost routine.Further details started emerging however, leading to verbal clashes amongst politicians, and speculations as to the real roots of the incident.
First, it is important to understand some of the history and geography of the area. Ouyoun Orghosh lays on the Eastern side of Mount Lebanon, not far from the ancient cedar "forest", in an area commonly known as El Arz (The Cedars). Ouyoun Orghosh is one of the villages on the boundary separating the Maronite mountain, and the mostly Shiite Bekaa valley. The area is rich with water (Ouyoun means springs), and there have been many clashes there, over the years, around water and grazing rights. The Maronites in the area have planted fruit trees on a series of terraces on the mountain slope. There are also water reservoirs there to collect the melting snow, and irrigate the plants. The Shiites in the area, most of whom are from the Ahmaz tribe, send their goats grazing in the mountain where the Maronite's fruit trees are. The goats tend to damage the trees, causing the ire of the Maronite farmers. The Shiite tribesmen also raid the water reservoirs in the area to dig canals to divert the water to their cannabis plantations downstream, also causing anger amongst the Maronite farmers. So naturally, the area is under constant tension between the Maronites (mostly from the Tawk family, and sympathetic to Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces) and the Shiites, mostly from the Ahmaz tribe, who are aligned with Hezbollah.
It is not surprising then that this incident took place and it could have remained an anodyne 2-liner buried in the fifth page of Lebanese papers.
Some interesting aspects of the event have since emerged and relayed to us from a source in the Lebanese Army:
- The weapons used in the clash included heavy machine guns and rocket propelled grenades (RPG's). While not totally unusual, this typically signifies a serious clash.
- The so-called confiscated drugs (1 ton) were in fact cannabis stems that can only be used for fertilization. The villagers typically purchase them from the cannabis growers in the Bekaa as a fertilizer for the trees in the spring.
- Unlike what the media reported, both sides were heavily armed, so this was a planned clash.
- Finally, and most seriously, the Lebanese Army commandos, who intervened to stop the clash, were one-sided, only arresting the Christians involved in the incident.
While the exact roots of the incident are still not clear, and are probably multi-faceted due to the long history of conflict in that area, there is wide speculation that this clash is a precursor to a Christian-Shiite clash, akin to the May 8 2008 clashed between the Shiites (Hezbollah + Amal) against the Sunni and the Druze. The Lebanese Christian contingent of the Cedars Revolution is left standing alone against the Syro-Hezbollah hegemony. History indeed tends to repeat itself.
The one-sided response of the Lebanese Army is also troubling: The troops involved were the Army commandos who are closely aligned with President Michel Sleiman, former Army commander. Some of the same army units stood idle when Hezbollah and Amal invaded Sunni Beirut and the Druze mountain, and in certain cases hampered Sunni and Druze men and weapons movement to the advantage of Hezbollah.
Are we headed towards another May 8, this time targeting the Christian hinterland?
