Continued Saudi-Syrian Rapprochement Undermines March 14

According to generally well-informed sources of the pro-Lebanon March 14 alliance, Saad Hariri was summoned recently to Saudi Arabia and "ordered" to be more accommodating towards Syria and its influence in Lebanon.

This must be a tough pill to swallow for Saad, since the Syrians are widely believed to have killed his father. He nonetheless ordered the media outlets of his Mustakbal (Future) Movement to tone down its anti-Syrian rhetoric. The Hariri scion will also be visiting Syria in mid-April to coordinate better relations with Syria.

One of the reasons for the Saudi move is to gain Syria's support in Iraq in order to counterbalance the increasing Iranian influence there. It is unclear at this point how helpful the Syrians can be in supporting Saudi Arabia's agenda in Iraq, especially considering the close relationship between Iran and Syria, and the fact that Syria has little control or influence over Iraq's Shia community. Syria could however bolster some of the Sunni movements in Iraq and help supply them with men and materiel.

If this ultimately leads to a return of Syria's hegemony over Lebanon, it would be at least the second time that Iraq was the indirect cause for a carte blanche given to the Syrians in Lebanon. Previously the Syrians were allowed to brutally invade the Christian areas of Lebanon in return for its cooperation in the first Gulf War.

Also, if the Mustakbal movement is neutralized vis-a-vis the Syrians, then the March 14 movement will become meaningless after the Syrians were able to peel-off the Druze contingent from it. Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces will be the last significant component of March 14 opposing the Syrians.

It is too early to tell how far Hariri's policies will change beyond pure rhetoric, but if he does, he would be the second leader orphaned by the Syrians to return to their fold, after Walid Jumblatt.