Mount Lebanon Municipal Elections - The Aftermath

While minor in the Lebanese political context, the Mount Lebanon municipal elections that took place last weekend have had at least one significant impact: They have clearly shown that the Aounist movement is losing its appeal within the Christian population.

Indeed, the only major Aounist political victory was in Hadeth, in the Southern Metn district. That victory would not have been possible without the massive vote of the Shiites present in the area. In the Jbeil (Byblos) election, the Aounists were trounced by a coalition supported by the Christian parties of the March 14 movement. It even appears that the Shiites in Jbeil did not fully support the Aounists, which is in itself quite interesting.

The main remaining battle between the two major Christian coalitions will be in the city of Zahle, this coming weekend. It is said that the Syrians and Iranian services operating in Lebanon are spending large amounts of money to support the list supported by Aoun and Skaff. A defeat in Zahle will deal a severe blow to the Aounists.

Why are the Aounists losing their popular support among the Lebanese Christians? While there are no formal polls on the subject, I believe the Christians are increasingly worried about the unconditional support that Aoun is offering Hezbollah. They are also worried about the increasing war rhetoric between the Shiite militia and Israel which could bring a huge catastrophe on Lebanon.

I predict, based on conversations I have had with mid-level leaders within the Aounist movement that, sooner or later, there will be a rebellion inside the Aounist movement against its leader that will lead into a new political party. This new party will bring back the pro-Lebanon ideology to the movement.