Monday, June 14, 2010

The Reemergence of the Ottomans

Turkey has entered a new stage in its history, one that is bound to have deep and lasting consequences on the Middle East and Europe. The Gazan flotilla incident is nothing but the latest signs of a new, assertive and militant Turkey.

What will this new Turkey look like, and how far will it go, is anyone's guess. But here are some interesting and telling facts:

  • Turkey is increasingly playing the role of the defender of the Palestinian cause, and taking hostile postures against Israel. The objective is to appeal to the Arab and Islamic masses, and portray itself as the leader of Islamic world, as the Ottoman Empire was for over 600 years.
  • Through the uranium enrichment deal it co-sponsored with Brazil, Turkey is attempting to become a player in worldwide diplomatic matters, and appear in a leadership position in the Middle East.
  • The dismantling of the secularist military leadership through fabricated conspiracies marks the end of Ataturk's secular era in Turkey, and the reemergence of an Islamic Turkey.
  • A number of speeches by Turkish officials affiliated with the ruling AKP party have expressed nostalgia for the Ottoman era, promised a glorious future for Turkey that's brighter than the Ottoman empire was.
  • A number of AKP party officials made statements that are borderline insulting or derogatory to Arabs. For example, a recent speech by Recep Tayyip Edrogan warned Israel that Turkey "is not like other countries..." and that "we are not tribes".
It is clear that Turkey's current leadership has expansionist views, and an aggressive agenda to be the dominating power in the Middle East and Islamic world. However, there are a number of unknowns that will determine what turn of events will emerge from this new Turkish era:


1. Will the AKP remain in power to achieve its dreams, and what are the secularists plans to counter the AKP's Islamization?

2. What will be the reaction of the current Sunni leaders, Egypt and Saudi Arabia who are being eclipsed by Erdogan's Turkey?

3. What will the Iranians do? They have been trumped by Turkey's latest actions. Turkey has reportedly even invited Iran's main ally/proxy in the Levant, Hizbollah's Nasrallah to visit Ankara. Will there be a friendly or a confrontational competition between the two non-Arab wannabe leaders of the Islamic world?

4. Finally how will Turkey balance its new ambitions with its existing relationships within NATO, Europe and what is left of its relationship with Israel? Will Turkey shift to the Russian sphere of influence?

One thing is for sure, this all will make for really interesting times in Eurasia.