Monday, August 14, 2006

Hizballa Protecting Lebanon?

Nasrallah says that the Lebanese Army and UN troops cannot defend Lebanon, thus the "Resistance" (meaning Hizballa) needs to retain its weapons. How exactly is Hizballa defending and protecting Lebanon?

Was Hizballa able to stop the Israeli F16's from bombing the Lebanese infrastructure? Was Hizballa able to stop the Israeli gunboats from shelling the Lebanese coastal cities? Was Hizballa able to stop the Israelis from re-occupying the South?

The answer to all of the above questions is no.

As a matter of fact, by hiding among the civilians, and by launching rockets from residential areas and hiding their launchers in residential buildings, Hizballa has endagered the Lebanese and cause the death and injury of thousands of innocent civilians.

Hizballa does not protect the Lebanese, it endangers their lives and well-being!

Hizballa and "Collateral Damage"

One of the key strategies employed by the Israelis in their war against Hizballa is to inflict pain on civilians. They are hoping that the civilians will pressure Hizballa to stop their attacks and somehow submit to the will of the Israelis.

Does Hizballa care if the population suffers? The answer is no. As a matter of fact, the Israeli punishment of the Lebanese civilians plays in the hand of Hizballa for three main reasons:

1. The suffering inflicted on the population makes it more hateful of Israel, and by the same token, more supportive of Hizballa. While this sounds somewhat illogical when seen from a Western point of view, it is quite logical to the population of the Middle East, where emotions are more powerful than rational thought.

2. Hizballa thrives on misery. The misery of the Shiites, who have been hardest hit by this war, provides Hizballa with the opportunity to offer them help. Using the hundreds of millions of dollars provided by Iran, Hizballa will hospitalize the wounded, offer food and necessities to the refugees, and help the people of the South and Beirut's Southern Suburb to rebuild their homes. Nasrallah will then become even more of a hero in the eye of the Shiites.

3. The West hates misery. Seeing pictures of dead civlians, suffering children and destoryed homes will prompt the Western powers to put pressure on Israel, thus restricting the Jewish State's room to maneuver.

It is interesting that the Israelis have not learned from their experience with the Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank: Collective punishment of civilians does not work to their advantage, quite the contrary.

Will the Cease-Fire Hold?

A cease-fire is about to take effect between Israel and Hizballa. The question that every Lebanese is asking is: Will the cease-fire hold? The answer is that it is unlikely and here's why:

-Neither of the warring sides is too keen on this agreement. Hizballa is emboldened by its relative successes on the ground and wants to show the world that they are still as capable as ever. Israel, which has not achieved any of the goals of its military operation, still feels that it has unfinished business with the Iranian proxy.

-The inter-mingling of the Israeli and Hizballa forces on the ground that is due to the rapid advance of the Israeli forces during the last hours of this round, will create plenty of opportunities for clashes that may spiral out of control.

-The UN Security Council resolution is vague, and is full of loopholes that can be exploited or misinterpreted by either side.

-The fighting did not accomlish anything, there was no winner or loser, except for Lebanon, but that doesn't count. Hizballa is slowly clarifying its position vis-a-vis its evacuation of South Lebanon and its disarmament. It is becoming more and more clear that it won't be easy to rid South Lebanon of Nasrallah's fighters, and this will be unacceptable to Israel.

If the cease-fire fails, it is likely that the war will spread regionally, involving Syria and possibly Iran.