One one hand, a loose coalition spearheaded by Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces and their junior partners made of the Kataeb and other small parties are aligned with the March 14 alliance led by the Sunnis. This loose coalition is aligned with the US and its Middle Eastern allies (Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan), and opposed to Syria and Iran's influence in Lebanon.
One the other hand, former General Michel Aoun leads a coalition that comprises the Marada party of Suleiman Franjieh (Jr.), and is tightly aligned with the Shiite Hezbollah and their Syro-Iranian patrons. This is known as the March 8 alliance.
Fundamentally all Lebanese Christians have the same goal: provide the the Christians of Lebanon with a safe and prosperous homeland, where they have a significant political influence, and won't be treated as second -class citizens or undesirables like elsewhere in the Middle East.
What divides the Christians is the path to achieve this goal.
The March 14 alliance believes that an alignment with the West and moderate Sunnis is the best guarantee of Christian survival in Lebanon. Samir Geagea and his partners believe that the greatest danger is Syrian control over Lebanon, and the fundamental Shiite armed force that is Hizbollah. Geagea believes that the Sunnis present a lesser danger to Lebanon since they do not have a credible military force (unlike Hezbollah), and that the current Sunnis leadership tends to be religiously moderate.
The Aoun-ist movement believes the opposite. An alliance with the Shiites of Lebanon is the best guarantee to Christian survival. They believe that the Shiite tend to be more moderate (despite the past efforts of Hezbollah to establish an Islamic state in Lebanon), and are quick to point out that Christians live in reasonable peace in Iran and Syria, unlike Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Aounists also believe that the future of the Lebanese Christians is through an alliance with the Shiites who outnumber the Sunnis in Lebanon and tend to be more nationalistic. Finally the Aounists believe that the US and the West in general cannot be trusted since they tend to abandon their allies rather unceremoniously.
Both sides have valid points and the collapse of the Egyptian regime tends to show that the Aounists may have bet on the better horse. What both sides fail to realize is that their are nothing but pawns in the hands of their more powerful allies. Aoun is currently a useful ally to Hezbollah and Syria, but will he remain so once he has finished serving his purpose? If the Americans and Saudis get a favorable deal from Syria on Iraq, will they still support their Lebanese allies?
The division of the Christians is temporarily a useful hedge that can minimize their losses when one side prevails, but this same division is weakening them to the point that the Druze have become the real kingmakers in Lebanon. Indeed, Walid Jumblatt, by switching sides, allowed the March 8 forces to prevail in the selection of the next Lebanese Prime Minister.
