I am not a fan of conspiracy theories despite their popularity in the Middle East. However, I'm a bit confused by the clumsiness of the IAF.
First, the IAF destroys a clearly marked UN observation post, killing 4 UN observers. This incident has, no doubt, sent chills down the spine of any country that was considering sending peacekeepers to Lebanon. This was, indeed, a very unproductive act.
Today, the IAF levels a building serving as a shelter to many children in Qana, the same Qana where the IDF committed another terrible mistake 10 years ago. The carnage is no less devastating in terms of its human toll and forces Israel to accept a cease-fire it has been resisting for 2 weeks.
Note that the conspiracy theories below are only meant to generate a discussion and are not meant as serious analytical theories.
Conspiracy theory #1: Hizballa is pointing their own laser target designators, illuminating buildings of their choosing and confusing Israel's smart bombs into hitting the wrong target. By doing so, the Iranian proxy is cornering Israel diplomatically.
Conspiracy theory #2: Instead of using technology to confuse the IAF targeting, Hizballa is using double agents to achieve the same purpose.
Conspiracy theory #3: Condi pressures Ehud to announce a cease-fire. Ehud does not want to lose face so he creates this incident as an excuse for a cease-fire.
What do you think is behind these two puzzling events?
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Not another Qana!
What has happened in Qana today is absolutely horrible. This terrible loss of innocent life (over 54 dead, many of them children) will be remembered by the Lebanese as another dark episode in their history with Israel. This massacre due to the sloppy targeting by the IAF will weigh on Israel's conscience for years to come.
But let us not forget the huge moral responsibility that Hizballa bears in every loss of innocent life in Lebanon. By having dispersed their infrastructre in the midst of heavily populated areas, by launching their rockets from alleys between houses and mosques, Nasrallah's militia is in effect using the Lebanese population as human shields.
The horrific massacre that has taken place today is a turning point in this war. This will force a cease fire on Israel before it is able to inflict enough pain on Hizballa, and the ensuing politcal settlement may prove inconclusive. If Hizballa is not disarmed as a result of this war, there will be more Qanas in Lebanon's future, and all the death and distruction would have been in vain.
But let us not forget the huge moral responsibility that Hizballa bears in every loss of innocent life in Lebanon. By having dispersed their infrastructre in the midst of heavily populated areas, by launching their rockets from alleys between houses and mosques, Nasrallah's militia is in effect using the Lebanese population as human shields.
The horrific massacre that has taken place today is a turning point in this war. This will force a cease fire on Israel before it is able to inflict enough pain on Hizballa, and the ensuing politcal settlement may prove inconclusive. If Hizballa is not disarmed as a result of this war, there will be more Qanas in Lebanon's future, and all the death and distruction would have been in vain.
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Day 15: What Next?
On day 15 of the Israel-Hizballa war, two notable events too place. The first is the failure of diplomacy in Rome where the US, the UK and, to some extent, France opposed a shallow cease-fire that would not address the fundamental problem of Hizballa's arms and the danger posed to Lebanon's stability and Israel's northern towns. The second event is the tactical setback dealt to the IDF in Bint Jbeil on the hands of the Iranian proxy. Adding insult to injury, Hizballa fired a record number of rockets on Northern Israel, underlying the failure of the IAF in curbing the Katyusha launches.
These two events mean one thing, namely that this war is not nearing its end. Israel has no choice but defeating Hizballa, and this will clearly take time. Any other outcome will send a signal to the Arab world that Israel can be defeated, and will encourage military adventurism on the part of the Arabs and Iran. The said signal might even cause the fall of some of the moderate Arab governments on the hands of the masses smelling Israeli blood. And the failure of the International community in agreeing on a solution to the conflict means that there is no political defeat for Hizballa on the horizon.
The IDF has, so far, been quite aggressive from the air, but timid on the ground. It has committed limited resources in engaging Hizballa on the ground, has has paid for it in excessive casualties today. I expect a change in strategy in the next 48 hours where the IDF will accelerate its ground offensive by committing much larger forces, but victory for the IDF is most likely weeks away.
There are, however, three possible (but unlikely) events could lead to a rapid end to this war:
These two events mean one thing, namely that this war is not nearing its end. Israel has no choice but defeating Hizballa, and this will clearly take time. Any other outcome will send a signal to the Arab world that Israel can be defeated, and will encourage military adventurism on the part of the Arabs and Iran. The said signal might even cause the fall of some of the moderate Arab governments on the hands of the masses smelling Israeli blood. And the failure of the International community in agreeing on a solution to the conflict means that there is no political defeat for Hizballa on the horizon.
The IDF has, so far, been quite aggressive from the air, but timid on the ground. It has committed limited resources in engaging Hizballa on the ground, has has paid for it in excessive casualties today. I expect a change in strategy in the next 48 hours where the IDF will accelerate its ground offensive by committing much larger forces, but victory for the IDF is most likely weeks away.
There are, however, three possible (but unlikely) events could lead to a rapid end to this war:
- By some extraordinary intelligence feat, Israel is able to decimate the Hizballa leadership by hitting their secret bunkers.
- An Israeli blunder causes a large number of civilian casualties, putting enormous pressure on Israel and its allies to accept a cease fire. Such a blunder will become increasingly likely as the IDF intensifies and accelerates its offensive.
- An incident takes place that threatens to expand the war regionally, such as a skirmish between Israeli and Syrian forces.
Sunday, July 23, 2006
Is Lebanon Missing Another Opportunity?
Day 11 of the tit-for-tat war between Israel and Hizballa has just come to an end and there is no clear winner. Hizballa's ability to lob rockets into Israel does not seem to have been hindered despite the hundreds of sorties by the IAF. Missiles are still raining by the dozens on Northern Israel, including Haifa. Israel has scored a point by taking the hill-top village of Maroun El Ras after fierce combat and suffering 6 dead.
While there is still no clear winner, there is a clear loser: Lebanon. The country has suffered close to 400 civilian deaths, its infrastructure severely damaged, its factories on fire and a promising touristic summer wasted. Further, Lebanon has suffered severe reputational damage in the eyes of businesses planning to establish themselves there, and tourists planning to visit.
The worst part of this tragedy is that it might be in vain. Initial hope that the Israeli onslaught would bring an end of Hizballa is waning. Israel's vengeful air campaign has destroyed many targets that cannot be linked to Hizballa, including:
Sadly, the worst sin is probably being committed by the Lebanese Leadership. By not isolating Hizblla politically and pressuring it to release the Israeli hostages and stopping its attacks against Israel, Lebanon in ensuring that the onslaught continues, and that Hizballa remains a thorn in Lebanon's side.
The ultimate irony of the story is that Lebanon's loss is the gain of countries such as Syria and Iran. Hotels in major Syrian cities are booked at capacity, its airport is busy as a beehive. Iran on the other hand is benefiting from the increase in oil prices, and by some estimates, Iran has made about 500 million dollars out of the "July War".
While there is still no clear winner, there is a clear loser: Lebanon. The country has suffered close to 400 civilian deaths, its infrastructure severely damaged, its factories on fire and a promising touristic summer wasted. Further, Lebanon has suffered severe reputational damage in the eyes of businesses planning to establish themselves there, and tourists planning to visit.
The worst part of this tragedy is that it might be in vain. Initial hope that the Israeli onslaught would bring an end of Hizballa is waning. Israel's vengeful air campaign has destroyed many targets that cannot be linked to Hizballa, including:
- The Beirut Airport
- Practically every bridge in Lebanon
- Lebanese Army barracks and positions, the same Lebanese Army that is supposed to disarm Hizballa and deploy in Southern Lebanon.
- Numerous factories, including a newly-built milk bottling facility
- Telecommunication towers and TV relay stations belonging to moderate and Christian stations.
Sadly, the worst sin is probably being committed by the Lebanese Leadership. By not isolating Hizblla politically and pressuring it to release the Israeli hostages and stopping its attacks against Israel, Lebanon in ensuring that the onslaught continues, and that Hizballa remains a thorn in Lebanon's side.
The ultimate irony of the story is that Lebanon's loss is the gain of countries such as Syria and Iran. Hotels in major Syrian cities are booked at capacity, its airport is busy as a beehive. Iran on the other hand is benefiting from the increase in oil prices, and by some estimates, Iran has made about 500 million dollars out of the "July War".
Day 3: Hizballa 1; Israel 0
Written 7/14/2006 -- 10:30 AM EST
On the third day after the cross-border raid conducted by Hizbullah and which led to the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, the score is still 1-0 in the favor of the Shiite group. The Israeli reaction has been, so far, the equivalent of a violent chest beating, concentrating vengefully on Lebanese infrastructure targets and inflicting virtually no pain on Hizbullah. The IDF has, so far, not been even able to silence the Hizbullah TV station, Al Manar, despite the generous use of its offensive triad in the air, on the ground, and over the sea. Hizbullah, on the other hand, has showered Northern Israel with rockets, reaching Haifa for the first time.
Despite its relative lack of means, Nasrallah's group has also exhibited a keen knowledge of the location of strategic civilian and military assets in Israel, scoring direct hits on Israeli military installations deep into Israel. Today, Israel finds itself in desperate need to equalize the score, take the initiative and show progress to the civilian populations in the Galilee.
Clearly, escalating its assault on the infrastructure of Lebanon will yield no positive results. The weak Lebanese central government has neither the will nor the means to deal with Hizbullah. Any direct action against Hizbullah will cause irreparable damage to Lebanon's fragile unity, since the Nasrallah's army enjoys the support of the Shiite masses. Further, the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by Syria and Hizbullah during the last two decades, and does not have the military capability to deal with terrorist group.
What Israel needs, is to recover the initiative, bloody Hizbullah's face and gain international support in marginalizing the group. One way to accomplish this feat is through a limited ground offensive that will force Hizbullah into more conventional warfare where Tsahal can take full advantage of its armor, artillery and air force. This will surely inflict
casualties on the Hizbullah side, disrupt its rocket launching activities and open the way for deploying a peace-keeping force in Southern Lebanon that will shield Northern Israel and sap Hizbullah's raison d'etre. Having
the Lebanese border secured by a capable UN-sponsored, capable, peacekeeping force will go a long way in securing a Lebanese and international consensus to disarm the last remaining Lebanese militia.
Dealing Hizbullah a defeat on the ground will also convince its supporters that it is not the capable defense force that will safeguard their villages in the South. Such a ground offensive is not without risks. It will clearly cost the IDF a number of casualties, and will result in collateral damage in Southern Lebanon that will yield in a high diplomatic cost to Israel. Further, the International Community, led by the US, needs to be ready to quickly provide a neutral peacekeeping force that will promptly replace Tsahal in Southern Lebanon, in order to spare Israel and Lebanon another "Security Zone" fiasco.
What remains to be seen is whether Olmert and his coalition have the courage and political capital to retake the initiative, take decisive action against Hizbullah and, once an for all, provide security to the inhabitants of the Israeli North.
On the third day after the cross-border raid conducted by Hizbullah and which led to the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, the score is still 1-0 in the favor of the Shiite group. The Israeli reaction has been, so far, the equivalent of a violent chest beating, concentrating vengefully on Lebanese infrastructure targets and inflicting virtually no pain on Hizbullah. The IDF has, so far, not been even able to silence the Hizbullah TV station, Al Manar, despite the generous use of its offensive triad in the air, on the ground, and over the sea. Hizbullah, on the other hand, has showered Northern Israel with rockets, reaching Haifa for the first time.
Despite its relative lack of means, Nasrallah's group has also exhibited a keen knowledge of the location of strategic civilian and military assets in Israel, scoring direct hits on Israeli military installations deep into Israel. Today, Israel finds itself in desperate need to equalize the score, take the initiative and show progress to the civilian populations in the Galilee.
Clearly, escalating its assault on the infrastructure of Lebanon will yield no positive results. The weak Lebanese central government has neither the will nor the means to deal with Hizbullah. Any direct action against Hizbullah will cause irreparable damage to Lebanon's fragile unity, since the Nasrallah's army enjoys the support of the Shiite masses. Further, the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by Syria and Hizbullah during the last two decades, and does not have the military capability to deal with terrorist group.
What Israel needs, is to recover the initiative, bloody Hizbullah's face and gain international support in marginalizing the group. One way to accomplish this feat is through a limited ground offensive that will force Hizbullah into more conventional warfare where Tsahal can take full advantage of its armor, artillery and air force. This will surely inflict
casualties on the Hizbullah side, disrupt its rocket launching activities and open the way for deploying a peace-keeping force in Southern Lebanon that will shield Northern Israel and sap Hizbullah's raison d'etre. Having
the Lebanese border secured by a capable UN-sponsored, capable, peacekeeping force will go a long way in securing a Lebanese and international consensus to disarm the last remaining Lebanese militia.
Dealing Hizbullah a defeat on the ground will also convince its supporters that it is not the capable defense force that will safeguard their villages in the South. Such a ground offensive is not without risks. It will clearly cost the IDF a number of casualties, and will result in collateral damage in Southern Lebanon that will yield in a high diplomatic cost to Israel. Further, the International Community, led by the US, needs to be ready to quickly provide a neutral peacekeeping force that will promptly replace Tsahal in Southern Lebanon, in order to spare Israel and Lebanon another "Security Zone" fiasco.
What remains to be seen is whether Olmert and his coalition have the courage and political capital to retake the initiative, take decisive action against Hizbullah and, once an for all, provide security to the inhabitants of the Israeli North.
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