Is Tel Aviv Next?

Today, Hizballa's leader threatened to target the Israeli capital, Tel Aviv whenever Israel bombs the Lebanese capital, Beirut. It is interesting to note that the Israelis declared Jerusalem as their capital since 1950.

Tonight, barely a few hours after the threat, Israel bombed Southern Beirut again, defying Nasrallah.

What will Hizballa do tomorrow? I have no doubt that Nasrallah's militia will attempt to launch their longer range missiles towards Tel Aviv, otherwise their fearless leader wil lose face. Such a retaliation raises a few interesting questions:

1. How will Israel's missile defense systems perform in disrupting the missiles?
2. How many of its long range launchers will Hizballa expose to almost certain destruction, since the launch of such missiles leaves an unmistakable smoke and heat signature that the IAF is certain to locate.
3. Most importantly, how will Israel react if missiles cause death and destruction in their economic and financial capital.

The answer to the third question is not obvious. If Israel carries its threat to destroy Lebanese infrastructure, then it will be doing Nasrallah a favor. This will further inflame the world against Israel and increase the pressure on the Jewish State to accept a cease-fire.

What else can Israel do, since it is already hitting all Hizballa positions it knows about over and over again. One option is to hit Hizballa where it hurts most: the civilian areas under its control. For example, Israel could destroy electricity and water supplies to the main Shiite strongholds in the South and the Bekaa. It could even conduct punitive raids against Baalbeck.

But can Israel afford another Qana? In this game of chess, one loser is known in advance: the Lebanese population.