CBC News Report on the Hariri Assassination

Canada's CBC News published a report on the Hariri Assassination, clearly accusing Hezbollah of executing the murderous operation.

CBC based much of its evidence on the investigation run by ISF Captain Wissam Eid who was able to identify the cell phones utilized by the hit squad, and traced them back directly to Hezbollah. Furthermore, Eid was able to connect the phones to a Hezbollah underground operational HQ, located under the "Rassoul al A'zam" (or Great Prophet) hospital.

The report also underlines the weak and timid approach taken by the UN in its investigation, and concludes that the Shiite militia and its operatives will most likely get away with murder.

As an aside, it is interesting to see the callous nature of the fundamentalist militia which continues to use civilian infrastructure as a shield for its operations.

Below are the links to the 2-part report:

Part 1

Part 2

A Republican Victory in Congress Makes a War in the Middle East More Likely

The Republicans are poised to control the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate within the next 48 hours. The loss of his super-majority in Congress will tie Barak Hussein Obama's hands domestically, and will force him to concentrate on foreign affairs in order to project leadership and have a chances at a second mandate.

Three world issues are significant enough to the American people that a breakthrough in any of them could significantly boost Obama's popularity:


1. The Palestinian issue. If Obama is able to convince the Palestinians and Israelis to make peace leading to the creation of a Palestinian state, he would have achieved a miracle. But Obama is unlikely to succeed where so many of his predecessors have failed, especially that the current situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories is not currently favorable to a settlement. The Israelis have moved too far to the right, and the Palestinians are weak and divided.

2. China. The American people are increasingly seeing China as a threat to US jobs and the US economy. A tough policy towards China might prove quite popular with an overwhelming majority of Americans. That is, until they realize that most of the goods they purchase will become more expensive. Indeed, most of what the Americans consume is made in China.

3. Iran. Most Americans view Iran as a threat to their security and the security of their allies in the Middle East. A limited war to destroy the Iranian nuclear infrastructure, and the Revolutionary Guard's military might can prove quite popular. No ground troops will be required, at least in principle, the whole operations with be conducted using the Navy and Air Force, with possible special operations intervention to destroy Iranian anti-ship missiles in the islands of the straights of Hormuz, and on the Iranian coastline. Of course such an operation will likely go in pair with an Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon, and possibly an Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. An added complication is Iraq where the Iranians can stir a lot of trouble, and where the US might be forced to commit land forces.

Will Obama have the courage to undertake any of the above, or any other major world initiative? The (near) future will tell. Obama has about a year before the next presidential campaign goes in full swing.

The Reemergence of the Ottomans

Turkey has entered a new stage in its history, one that is bound to have deep and lasting consequences on the Middle East and Europe. The Gazan flotilla incident is nothing but the latest signs of a new, assertive and militant Turkey.

What will this new Turkey look like, and how far will it go, is anyone's guess. But here are some interesting and telling facts:

• Turkey is increasingly playing the role of the defender of the Palestinian cause, and taking hostile postures against Israel. The objective is to appeal to the Arab and Islamic masses, and portray itself as the leader of Islamic world, as the Ottoman Empire was for over 600 years.

• Through the uranium enrichment deal it co-sponsored with Brazil, Turkey is attempting to become a player in worldwide diplomatic matters, and appear in a leadership position in the Middle East.

• The dismantling of the secularist military leadership through fabricated conspiracies marks the end of Ataturk's secular era in Turkey, and the reemergence of an Islamic Turkey.

• A number of speeches by Turkish officials affiliated with the ruling AKP party have expressed nostalgia for the Ottoman era, promised a glorious future for Turkey that's brighter than the Ottoman empire was.

• A number of AKP party officials made statements that are borderline insulting or derogatory to Arabs. For example, a recent speech by Recep Tayyip Edrogan warned Israel that Turkey "is not like other countries..." and that "we are not tribes".

It is clear that Turkey's current leadership has expansionist views, and an aggressive agenda to be the dominating power in the Middle East and Islamic world. However, there are a number of unknowns that will determine what turn of events will emerge from this new Turkish era:


1. Will the AKP remain in power to achieve its dreams, and what are the secularists plans to counter the AKP's Islamization?

2. What will be the reaction of the current Sunni leaders, Egypt and Saudi Arabia who are being eclipsed by Erdogan's Turkey?

3. What will the Iranians do? They have been trumped by Turkey's latest actions. Turkey has reportedly even invited Iran's main ally/proxy in the Levant, Hizbollah's Nasrallah to visit Ankara. Will there be a friendly or a confrontational competition between the two non-Arab wannabe leaders of the Islamic world?

4. Finally how will Turkey balance its new ambitions with its existing relationships within NATO, Europe and what is left of its relationship with Israel? Will Turkey shift to the Russian sphere of influence?

One thing is for sure, this all will make for really interesting times in Eurasia.

The Turkish Flotilla and the Disastrous Israeli Raid

The details about the Israeli raid against the Turkish -led flotilla that was attempting to break Gaza's naval embargo are still sketchy. It is however clear that the Israelis made serious, amateurish mistakes in their raid, turning the operation into a PR disaster of the worst kind.

It is true that the Israelis had no good options and were pushed onto a corner by Turkey. If they allowed the flotilla to proceed, they would have opened the gauntlet for many more "shipping expeditions" which would have opened the potential for massive weapons smuggling to Hamas. By interdicting the flotilla, they would further damage their relationship with Turkey, create bad PR and run the risk of incidents, like today's, in which there is civilian loss of life.

The Israelis chose to interdict, and ended up with the worst possible outcome. So what went wrong?

1. The interdiction happened in international waters, making the interception illegal based on international maritime law. This didn't need to happen, the interception could have happened much later, inside Israeli territorial waters. It is not known why the Israelis decided to intercept so early, possibly to take advantage of the night.
   
   
2. Knowing that the Turks and other pro-Palestinian activists were determined, the Israelis chose not to stop them using blank artillery shots, or shots across the bows of the incoming ships. They instead decided to land their marine commandos to take over the ships. This was fraught with risk. A defense expert suggested that it would have been better to damage the ship's propellers in order to prevent them from continuing their journey.
   
   
3. The naval commandos are not trained in crowd controls, they are trained killers, better used against terrorists or enemy troops. They failed to control the crowds and when some of them were abducted and they felt threatened, they followed their engagement rules and opened fire with deadly results.
   
   
4. Initially the commandos boarded the ships one by one, using a rope to descend from their Sea Stallion helicopter, allowing the activists to attack them individually, and capture the initial boarding party. It is being reported that the activists then took the captured commandos weapons (handguns and paintball guns) and opened fire on the other commandos. Knowing that the hundreds of people on the ships were hostile, a different tactic should have been used to overwhelm the activists instead of giving them the opportunity to single out the commandos.
   
   
5. The Israelis failed to jam electronic signals emanating from the flotilla, including photos and videos, allowing the activists to broadcast their propaganda before the Israelis could engage in damage control activities.

All the above is a poor reflection on the preparedness of the Israeli Defense Forces to deal with a reasonably anodyne threat. Whoever planned this operation is likely feverishly updating their resumes.

Reports of an Iranian Submarine Unloads Suspicious Cargo in Beirut

According to a number of sources, a submarine flying the Iranian flag docked at Beirut harbor and unloaded some cargo that was whisked away on a number of small trucks.

A visual observer located about half a mile from the harbor suggested that the submarine was a Russian-made Kilo Class submarine.

An even more troubling report mentioned that the crew members who manipulated the cargo were wearing "hazmat" suits, which indicates, if true, that the cargo contained hazardous material, possibly chemical, biological or radiological agents.

The use of a submarine would have ensured that the cargo would not be intercepted by the UN forces patrolling the waters off Lebanon to prevent the supply of weapons to Hezbollah, or the Israeli navy nearby.

The delivery of weapons of mass destruction to Hezbollah by Iran would be intolerable to Israel as it alters greatly the strategic balance in the region, and increases the potency of the Iranian proxy by at least an order of magnitude.

The fact that the delivery followed a direct route from the the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to Hezbollah might point to a level of distrust between Iran and Syria, or a Syrian reluctance to participate in such a dangerous escalation.

One word of caution, however, the reports are not from the most reliable of sources and may not be accurate. Similar information was reported by PJTV, an online conservative media outlet.

Mount Lebanon Municipal Elections - The Aftermath

While minor in the Lebanese political context, the Mount Lebanon municipal elections that took place last weekend have had at least one significant impact: They have clearly shown that the Aounist movement is losing its appeal within the Christian population.

Indeed, the only major Aounist political victory was in Hadeth, in the Southern Metn district. That victory would not have been possible without the massive vote of the Shiites present in the area. In the Jbeil (Byblos) election, the Aounists were trounced by a coalition supported by the Christian parties of the March 14 movement. It even appears that the Shiites in Jbeil did not fully support the Aounists, which is in itself quite interesting.

The main remaining battle between the two major Christian coalitions will be in the city of Zahle, this coming weekend. It is said that the Syrians and Iranian services operating in Lebanon are spending large amounts of money to support the list supported by Aoun and Skaff. A defeat in Zahle will deal a severe blow to the Aounists.

Why are the Aounists losing their popular support among the Lebanese Christians? While there are no formal polls on the subject, I believe the Christians are increasingly worried about the unconditional support that Aoun is offering Hezbollah. They are also worried about the increasing war rhetoric between the Shiite militia and Israel which could bring a huge catastrophe on Lebanon.

I predict, based on conversations I have had with mid-level leaders within the Aounist movement that, sooner or later, there will be a rebellion inside the Aounist movement against its leader that will lead into a new political party. This new party will bring back the pro-Lebanon ideology to the movement.

The Ouyoun Orghosh Incident: What Really Happened and What it All Means

The initial headlines were anodyne: An armed clash occurred near Ouyoun Orghosh between two clans, the army intervened, made arrests and confiscated weapons and drugs.The area where the clash occurred is known for its vendettas and tribal clashes. It is also known for hashish cultivation and processing. Therefore the event was almost routine.

Further details started emerging however, leading to verbal clashes amongst politicians, and speculations as to the real roots of the incident.

First, it is important to understand some of the history and geography of the area. Ouyoun Orghosh lays on the Eastern side of Mount Lebanon, not far from the ancient cedar "forest", in an area commonly known as El Arz (The Cedars). Ouyoun Orghosh is one of the villages on the boundary separating the Maronite mountain, and the mostly Shiite Bekaa valley. The area is rich with water (Ouyoun means springs), and there have been many clashes there, over the years, around water and grazing rights. The Maronites in the area have planted fruit trees on a series of terraces on the mountain slope. There are also water reservoirs there to collect the melting snow, and irrigate the plants. The Shiites in the area, most of whom are from the Ahmaz tribe, send their goats grazing in the mountain where the Maronite's fruit trees are. The goats tend to damage the trees, causing the ire of the Maronite farmers. The Shiite tribesmen also raid the water reservoirs in the area to dig canals to divert the water to their cannabis plantations downstream, also causing anger amongst the Maronite farmers. So naturally, the area is under constant tension between the Maronites (mostly from the Tawk family, and sympathetic to Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces) and the Shiites, mostly from the Ahmaz tribe, who are aligned with Hezbollah.

It is not surprising then that this incident took place and it could have remained an anodyne 2-liner buried in the fifth page of Lebanese papers.

Some interesting aspects of the event have since emerged and relayed to us from a source in the Lebanese Army:

• The weapons used in the clash included heavy machine guns and rocket propelled grenades (RPG's). While not totally unusual, this typically signifies a serious clash.
  
• The so-called confiscated drugs (1 ton) were in fact cannabis stems that can only be used for fertilization. The villagers typically purchase them from the cannabis growers in the Bekaa as a fertilizer for the trees in the spring.
  
• Unlike what the media reported, both sides were heavily armed, so this was a planned clash.
  
• Finally, and most seriously, the Lebanese Army commandos, who intervened to stop the clash, were one-sided, only arresting the Christians involved in the incident.

While the exact roots of the incident are still not clear, and are probably multi-faceted due to the long history of conflict in that area, there is wide speculation that this clash is a precursor to a Christian-Shiite clash, akin to the May 8 2008 clashed between the Shiites (Hezbollah + Amal) against the Sunni and the Druze. The Lebanese Christian contingent of the Cedars Revolution is left standing alone against the Syro-Hezbollah hegemony. History indeed tends to repeat itself.

The one-sided response of the Lebanese Army is also troubling: The troops involved were the Army commandos who are closely aligned with President Michel Sleiman, former Army commander. Some of the same army units stood idle when Hezbollah and Amal invaded Sunni Beirut and the Druze mountain, and in certain cases hampered  Sunni and Druze men and weapons movement to the advantage of Hezbollah.

Are we headed towards another May 8, this time targeting the Christian hinterland?

A "Sorcerer" on Death Row

Lebanese astrologist cum fortune teller Ali Sibat has been sentenced to death in Saudi Arabia following his arrest there in May 2008 while he was on a Hajj pilgrimage.

While orthodox Islam forbids sorcery, it only frowns on astrology and fortune telling. There is however no clear definition of sorcery in Islamic texts, and Sibat might very well get beheaded this week by the medieval-minded Saudis and their barbaric religious police.

Continued Saudi-Syrian Rapprochement Undermines March 14

According to generally well-informed sources of the pro-Lebanon March 14 alliance, Saad Hariri was summoned recently to Saudi Arabia and "ordered" to be more accommodating towards Syria and its influence in Lebanon.

This must be a tough pill to swallow for Saad, since the Syrians are widely believed to have killed his father. He nonetheless ordered the media outlets of his Mustakbal (Future) Movement to tone down its anti-Syrian rhetoric. The Hariri scion will also be visiting Syria in mid-April to coordinate better relations with Syria.

One of the reasons for the Saudi move is to gain Syria's support in Iraq in order to counterbalance the increasing Iranian influence there. It is unclear at this point how helpful the Syrians can be in supporting Saudi Arabia's agenda in Iraq, especially considering the close relationship between Iran and Syria, and the fact that Syria has little control or influence over Iraq's Shia community. Syria could however bolster some of the Sunni movements in Iraq and help supply them with men and materiel.

If this ultimately leads to a return of Syria's hegemony over Lebanon, it would be at least the second time that Iraq was the indirect cause for a carte blanche given to the Syrians in Lebanon. Previously the Syrians were allowed to brutally invade the Christian areas of Lebanon in return for its cooperation in the first Gulf War.

Also, if the Mustakbal movement is neutralized vis-a-vis the Syrians, then the March 14 movement will become meaningless after the Syrians were able to peel-off the Druze contingent from it. Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces will be the last significant component of March 14 opposing the Syrians.

It is too early to tell how far Hariri's policies will change beyond pure rhetoric, but if he does, he would be the second leader orphaned by the Syrians to return to their fold, after Walid Jumblatt.

Ethiopian Flight 409 - The Mystery Continues

There is still no official report on the crash of the Ethiopian airliner off the coast of Naameh, South of Beirut.

While it is not unusual for airline crash investigations to take time, some of the leaks emanating from the Lebanese government are worrisome and seem to indicate a will to hide the true cause of the crash.

In addition, there is tension growing between the Lebanese and Ethiopian governments over the not so subtle accusations of pilot error coming from the Lebanese side.

The lawsuit against Boeing that was just filed in Illinois on behalf of the relatives of the crash victims may help put some clarity into the matter. The American justice system's concept of discovery will no doubt shed much light on the substance of the investigation. Boeing will certainly zealously defend the safety of its planes and, as a result, disclose the real cause of the crash.

Walid Jumblatt - The Living Dead

Walid Jumblatt is a skillful politician, he always seems to manage to take advantage of the latest convoluted twists in Lebanese politics.

This time seems to be different. Jumblatt has crossed the Syrians at the outset of the Cedar Revolution. He has publicly insulted the Syrian regime and its leaders. He has supported the freedom seekers in Lebanon, allied himself with the West. Unforgivable!

Now that the March 14 club has failed to capitalize on its momentum, in part due to petty internal quarrels, and in part due to regional shifts, Jumblatt wants to switch sides, again. He should have learned from his father's ill-fated experience that the Syrians don't forgive nor forget.

It is my prediction that Jumblat's days are numbered, and that he will soon join his father as the latest victim of the Syrian regime, and its insatiable appetite to swallow and digest Lebanon. Jumblatt's death will be a lasting warning to all similarly situated politicians.

The Ethiopian Plane Crash: Many Theories, Few Answers

What are the reasons for the crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 409 south of Beirut? The most logical explanation is that the crash was due to bad weather, especially considering that the plane took off in the middle of a storm.

However, the eyewitness reports that claim that the plane went down in a ball of fire and the fact that the pilots did not contact the control tower, seem to contradict the weather theory. If such report are true, then the weather theory becomes highly unlikely. Bad weather does not cause a plane to suddenly ignite on take-off.

Further, Ethiopian Airlines are the safest airline in Africa, and one of the safest in the world. The 2 fatal incidents involving the airline in recent history include a bird strike, and a hijacking.

There are more likely reasons for the plane to ignite:

1. One of the two engines caught fire due to mechanical failure, or even sabotage, causing the plane to lose its lift and crash in the Mediterranean. Since this happened early after take-off, the pilots may not have had time to send a mayday to the air controllers.
   
   
2. A bomb on board the plane caused it to ignite and crash. But who would want to crash an Ethiopian airliner? Al Qaida perhaps, because of Ethiopia's role in Somalia?
   
   
3. The plane was hit by some sort of ordnance, either ground or air fire. Again why would someone want to down the Ethiopian airliner? Was it a case of mistaken identity? Hezbollah has been rumored lately of testing AA missiles, did they launch a missile at the wrong time?
   
   
4. The plane hit some flying object, an Israeli drone maybe, or a bird. But this is quite unlikely, precisely because of the weather conditions at the time.
   

There are certainly more questions than answers at this time. The recovery from the shallow waters south of Beirut of the "black boxes", the plane's fuselage and engines, should go a long way in uncovering the causes of this tragic loss of life.

Justice Ministry Building About to Collapse

This story is not new, but another set of experts have once again declared that the building housing the Justice Ministry is structurally unsound and may collapse in the near future.

Judges, lawyers and their staffers have been aware of this fact for years. But the succeeding governments had better things to do than worry about the imminent collapse of the center of Lebanese Justice.

The bottom line is that we don't need magnitude 7.0 earthquakes to destroy our infrastructure. We can do a much more predictable job ourselves.

Abou Moussa - Outrage of the Week

Said Moussa, better know by his nom de guerre "Abou Moussa", rejected yesterday the disarmament of Palestinian militia outside the refugee camps."This is solely a Palestinian decision and not in the hands of any other power," he added.

It is an outrage that a Palestinian dictates what happens on Lebanese soil, and the bigger outrage is that there was no noticeable response by the Lebanese government. Only the Kataeb party expressed its indignation over the statement.

Palestinian weapons in Lebanon have sown death and destruction since the 50's, and especially during the Lebanese war that started in 1975 killing and maiming hundreds of thousands of Lebanese. Those weapons have also caused the death of thousands of Palestinians during inter-Palestinian clashes. A number of Palestinian militias maintain weapons in Palestinian refugee camps under a de facto agreement dating back to the 1960's. A fewer number of factions, including Gibril's terrorist organization (PFLP) and Abu Mussa's Fatah al Intifada.

What is quite mysterious is why are these organizations allowed to keep their weapons when all militias were disarmed in 1990? As a result, we have in Lebanon a number of militias that militarily control their fiefdoms inside sovereign Lebanese territory, including the various Palestinian factions mostly in the Bekaa and South, and Hizbollah over most of Lebanon.

The Lebanese government needs to take immediate action against Abu Mussa's militia and other Palestinian groups outside of the camps if it is to maintain any semblance of credibility. Dealing with Palestinian weapons in the camps is more politically and militarily difficult and can be undertaken at a later stage.

If no action is taken,  other Lebanese factions will be compelled to re-arm, leading to a dangerous race to building the same militias that brought Lebanon's downfall in the 70's through the 90's.

Haiti: A Wake-Up Call for Lebanon

The earthquake that has hit Haiti had devastating consequences on this impoverished, small nation. The imagery that's emerging is unbearable to watch. What made the devastation worse are the substandard building practices common in Haiti, and the fact that the infrastructure itself was devastated. The government and other services that should have taken care of the victims were themselves almost annihilated by the quake.

Haiti's tragedy should serve as a wake-up call to Lebanon's institutions to be prepared for a similar occurrence. Lebanon lies on a number of active fault lines and the occurrence of a major earthquake is a matter of time.

How would Lebanon fare if a 7 magnitude quake hit Beirut? Would the airport and seaport remain operational to receive foreign aid? Would the hospitals remain operational? Would the water, electricity and telecommunications networks survive?
And who could coordinate the rescue and recovery efforts? Would that entity and its capabilities survive the quake?

According to seismologists, Lebanon is overdue for a significant quake. The frequent tremors felt some time ago in the Tyre area are only a reminder that Lebanon is also seismically unstable. The major known faults are the Roum fault in  the South which has been most recently active (and was behind the deadly quake of 1956), the Yammouneh fault in the Bekaa which has been dormant, and the most worrisome is the underwater fault that's 4 kilometers off Beirut and was responsible for a Tsunami that destroyed the city in 551 A.D. There is no telling when any of these faults will cause a massive quake that could devastate the country.

The government needs to setup a disaster recovery plan, a plan that would assess the survivability of critical infrastructure and institutions, designate alternatives and most importantly set a minimum standard for an earthquake-resistant code for new constructions.

The clock is ticking, and one day it will be too late.