Deal or Victory in Nahr El Bared?

The Lebanese Defense Minister, Elias El Murr, declared a short while ago the end of military operation in Nahr El Bared, indicating that all Fath El Islam positions were destroyed.

Is this really the end of Fah El Islam or is this announcement the result of an under the table deal?

The following facts make the Defense Minister's declaration suspect:

• The latest information on the military operations that were available earlier today indicate that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were still mopping up terrorist positions in the "New Camp" and had not entered the "Old Camp" yet.
  
  
• Syria declared it is threatening to shut its border with Lebanon. This is a typical Syrian move when it needs to pressure Lebanon into submission. In the absence of a peace treaty with Israel, Lebanon will remain hostage to using Syria as its only land passageway.
  
  
• In a shocking reversal, El Murr declared that the government had no proof of a relationship between Syria and Fath El Islam.
  
  
• The Palestinian mediators who have been trying to negotiate a cease-fire in the "camp" stated that Fath El Islam was declaring a cease-fire.

A deal that would allow the leaders of Fath El Islam to escape the Lebanese justice system would be a severe blow to the Lebanese Army who suffered 75 dead and more than 150 wounded in the fighting to eradicate the terrorists from Nahr El Bared. Such a deal would signal to other terrorist groups that the Lebanese government is weak, and lacks the resolve to control the country.

Finally, it is worth noting that Elias El Murr was, like his father, a staunch Syrian ally before the Cedars Revolution. He is also "President" Lahoud's brother-in-law.

Enough is Enough. The Army Needs to Finish Off the Vermin

The Lebanese Army needs to finish off the Fatah Al Islam vermin, whatever the political cost. Every building serving as a shelter to the vermin needs to be brought down. The Army needs to use flame throwers to cleanup the vermin remnants from the so called "camp".

And since the Palestinian camps cannot police themselves, they need to be disarmed by whatever means necessary. We have tolerated the cancer of Palestinian armed presence in Lebanon for too long. I think an overwhelming majority of Lebanese are finally united against the Palestinian arms in Lebanon.

If a Palestinian wants to carry weapons, they should be sent to Gaza to show their military prowess against the Israeli armed forces. And they are welcome to take their friends and relatives with them!

Where are Hizballa's weapons that are supposedly meant to defend Lebanon and its Army? Why is Hizballa still tacitly supporting the Palestinian miscreants in Lebanon? The answer is simple: Hizballa is not a Lebanese organization, but an Iranian one, with one purpose: extending the Iranian revolution to the Levant.

Why Is It Taking The Lebanese Army So Long?

There has been much speculation as to why it has taken the Lebanese Army so long to crush the Fatah Al Islam (FAI) fighters, knowing that there were initially as few as 300 of them.


Here are some of the reasons according to a retired Lebanese Army officer who is still well connected in Yarze:

• The FAI fighters are well dug-in and willing to fight to the end, rather than surrender. Further, they have nowhere to go, and their options are either to surrender or die fighting.
  
  
• The terrain is quite difficult, with narrow streets and tightly packed buildings filled with booby traps.
  
  
• The Army is trying hard to limit civilian casualties and limit the amount of destruction caused by the fighting. This is in big part in trying to prevent the fighting from spreading to the other Palestinian "camps" and to maintain the support of friendly Arab nations.
  
  
• The Army wants to limit the number of casualties in the ranks of its troops.
  
  
• The Army believes that time is on its side, at least to a certain extent and is willing to sacrifice time in order to attain the other objectives stated above.

With respect to the military supplies the Army has received from friendly nations, they do not provide it with a decisive advantage. Most of the supplies that were flown in consisted of body armor, helmets, rifles and ammunition. And while the 2 Gazelle gunships provided by the UAE are a good morale boost, they are only moderately effective in a dense urban setting.

Lebanese Army Puts Military Aid to Use

During the last 48 hours, Lebanese Army started putting to use the equipment it has received from Jordan, the UAE and the US. The most visible element of this aid are the two Gazelle helicopters that were delivered by the UAE, which still bear their original desert colors. The Lebanese Air Force did possess a number of Gazelles in the 80's, and it is therefore able to maintain and fly the helicopters without much lead time.


Other, less spectacular gear includes new US-style helmets, body armor and M4 rifles. The M4 is a shorter version of the M16 that is more convenient for troops riding in the cramped confines on an APC, and more practical for the close combat that is taking place in the narrow streets of the Palestinian "camp".

Nasrallah Shows His True Colors

By warning the Lebanese Army not to enter any Palestinian camps, Hizballa's Nasrallah shows his true colors and his real allegiance.

Nasrallah find himself in a position of indirectly defending a group that is responsible for many terrorist attacks in Lebanon that killed a number of innocent citizens, and promotes imposing an Islamic state in the country. Fatah Al Islam (FAI) is also a group controlled by Damascus, with the aim of creating chaos in Lebanon, in preparation for Syria to reclaim its control of its neighbor.

Why would Nasrallah take such a position, at a time where all the Lebanese are supportive of the Army? The answer is simple: He is obeying orders he received from his Iranian and Syrian masters.

It will be interesting to see how the Aounist camp will react to Hizballah position. The Aounists have, after all, been staunch supporters of the Army's actions in Tripoli.

The PLO Needs to Expel Fatah Al Islam from Nahr El Bared

The PLO representative in Lebanon, Abbas Zaki, expressed support for the Lebanese Authorities and pledged full cooperation with the Lebanese government in supressing what he called the Fatah Al Islam (FAI) "phenomenon". He even stated that he didn't oppose the Lebanese Armed Forces entering Nahr El Bared. This is a pivotal first in the history or Lebanese-Palestinian relations.

What the PLO needs to do is to join action to its words and expel Fatah Al Islam from Nahr El Bared and other Plaestinian "camps". The PLO needs to act fast, all the more so, since the FAI are using the Palestinian civilian population as human shields, and went as far as preventing rescue workers from evacuating the civilian casualties from the "camp". This was done in a criminal attempt at creating a humanitarian disaster that would force the Lebanese government to stop its assault on the terrorist group.

If the PLO cares about the well-being of their civilian constituents in Nahr El Bared, they need to act sooner rather than later. Every hour means more casualties and more misery for the innocent Palestinians of the "camp".

The Lebanese Army Must Enter Nahr El Bared

The Nahr El Bared Palestinian "camp" has clearly become a hornet's nest festering with all sorts of anti-Lebanese subversive elements.

The bloody clashes of the last 24 hours hours and subsequent bomb blast in Ashrafieh are a clear indication of the danger those elements represent.

The Fatah Al Islam (FAI) group deserves no mercy. Many of the soldiers who were killed were stopped at FAI readblocks while they were on leave and un-armed. Furthermore, the group's objectives are nothing short of creating mayhem in Lebanon, following the orders of their masters in Damascus.

The Lebanese government's only option to deal with these elements is to enter Nahr El Bared and cleanse it from the various terrorist and criminal elements who take refuge there. Going into the "camp" will require a degree of courage from the government, and some diplomacy in order to lift the ban imposed on Lebanese security forces from entering such "camps" by the infamous Cairo Accord.

A successful operation in Nahr El Bared will go a long way in establishing the credibility and resolve of the Saniora government, and regaining the pride and morale of the Lebanese Army who made painful sacrifices in the last 24 hours.

A decisive action needs to be undertaken if nothing else but to give meaning to the memory of the soldiers who died performing their duty. We owe it to them to obliterate the Fatah El Islam from Lebanon, once and for all.

Anything else would render meaningless the death of our soldiers.

The Pope Speaks on Reason, Moslems React Unreasonably

The Pope, His Holiness Benedict XVI , gave a speech on reason and Moslems around the world reacted in a very unreasonable way. Now the Pope is being asked to apologize!


During a speech given in German at the University of Regensburg in Bavaria, the Pope quoted a 14th century dialogue between Byzantine Emperor Manuel II Paleologus and a Persian scholar. The Emperor was quoted saying: "Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached" . This raised the outrage of Moslems throughout the world.

Sure, taken out of context and attributed directly to the Pope, these words could be inflamatory. Unfortunately, the reaction went a long way in justifying Emperor Manuel II words. Mobs roamed the streets, churches were burnt (Orthodox and Protestant churches were not spared), Christian worshippers were attacked, the Pope was insulted.


But how could a speech delivered titled "Faith, Reason and the University, Memories and Reflections", in German, at a University make so many waves? How could a speech that also daclares that "Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul" lead to so much violence?

I believe that there are a number of explanations to these reactions:

1. Some Islamic religious figures believe that their position can be strenghtened by polarizing their constituents and suggesting to them that their religion is under attack.
   
2. Manipulation by Islamo-fascist groups. The speech in question was not a publicized one, and the discussion of the debate between the Emperor and the Persian was only a minor topic in that speech. Only someone looking to create dissension and violence would have found and publicized these comments.
   
3. Ignorance. I bet you that none of the demonstrators read the Pope's speech, and that a vast majority thought the Pope made the inflamatory statement and not Emperor Manuel II. None of them would understand the nuance of the speech and all of them rely on their bankrupt leaders to provide an interpretation.

What is really interesting about the whole story is this: The conversation relayed by the Pope took place over 600 years ago and has not cause any outrage until today. It has been published in numerous books (including Professor Theodore Khoury's), and nobody seemed to notice it until today.

You can find the full text of the Pope's presentation (translated to English) here.

The Aoun Debate

A reader of my blog left an interesting response to my posting titled "The Aoun Enigma". I reproduce here his response and my thoughts.

Michel said...

As a matter of fact, Aoun has always been a passionate and honest leader whose only aim has been to see Lebanon free, free of any occupying army, be it Syrian or Israeli and free of corruption and cheap politics.

Remember the $42 billion dollar national debt, remember the time when they defended "The Sister" presence in Lebanon when Aoun was fighting the Syrians and remember the Hariri-Hizbollah alliance in the recent Lebanese elections. The whole story has nothing to do with a strong central government, it is all about a small elite group who are arrogant enough to think they can run the country and decide the future of Lebanon for generations to come regardless of the opinion of the majority of the Lebanese population.

Forget about a change of government and forget about early elections; let's have a referendum and let the Lebanese decide their future.

The March 14th Alliance has betrayed Aoun, yes. But no, Aoun did not betray Lebanon. How on Earth, did he betray his country? By supporting a group that has resisted an occupying force, or by having an open arm and helping fellow Lebanese when they needed it most.

Yes, the strategic interest of the Christians lie in an alliance with the Shiites and the Syrians.

5:49 AM

Erasmus said...

To Michel:

I would tend to agree with all you said about the past of General Aoun.

However, I disagree that our interests lie with Hizballa and the Syrians. You don't want us to forget the past deeds of Lebanese politicians, but you somehow want us to forget about Syria's deeds and its ambitions in Lebanon?

The Shiites and the Christians would make good allies, it's true. But not Hizballa! It's an Islamist organization, taking orders from a brutal theocratic regime in Tehran.

To understand Hizballa, look at their flag:

1. It has a verse of the Koran on top.

2. Has an AK47 in the middle along with a globe.

3. Has the name of the party Hizballa

4. An inscription saying: "The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon"
The nuance of the phrase is very important. It's not the Lebanese Islamic resistance, but the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon. They are not Lebanese, they are Islamic and happen to be in Lebanon.

For an other indication to Hizballah's allegiance look at their actions outside of Lebanon. They are doing Iran's work in Iraq by distabilizing the situation, and doing the same in the Palestinian territories ensuring the Palestinians and Israelis don't reach a settlement.

Bottom line: Hizballa is not a Lebanese resistance movement, but an extension of the Iranian "Revolution" in Lebanon. By allying himself with the Syrian regime and Hizballa, Aoun is taking the side of the enemies of Lebanon.

The Aoun Enigma

I do not understand the politics of former Prime Minister, General Michel Aoun, a current member of parliament and leader of the "Free Patriotic Movement".

Aoun has always stood for a strong central government, and against militias. His first initiative as Prime Minister was to shutdown all illegal seaports, and tried to reign in militias. In order for this Christian general to show he was non-sectarian, he started by trying to dismantle the Christian Militia, the Lebanese Forces.

Now, Michel Aoun is the main ally of Hizballa, the last armed militia in Lebanon.

Aoun has been a staunch supporter of an independent Lebanon and fought bloody battles against the Syrian occupation forces in Lebanon. His followers constituted the core of the demonstrations that led to the Syrian precipitated withdrawal from Lebanon. As a matter of fact, the General epitomized anti-Syrian movement in Lebanon.

Now Michel Aoun is allied with all of Syria's agents in Lebanon: Michel Murr (formerly Syria's enforcer in Lebanon), the Baathists, the Karami clan of Tripoli, Hizballa and puppet President Lahoud. Pick any political remnant of the Syrian influence in Lebanon, and you can count Aoun as one of its allies.

I have not heard any real justification of Aoun's alliances. Some arguments I have heard include:

-"The March 14th Alliance is led by the Sunnis and Druze, while the Christians have been relegated to second class citizenship in it". But could this be, because Aoun has divided the Christians?

-The March 14th Alliance betrayed Aoun politically after his return to Lebanon". But is this a reason for Aoun to betray Lebanon?

-"The strategic interests of the Christians lie in an alliance with the Shiites". But do the strategic interests of the Lebanese Christians lie with Syria and Iran, Hizballa's godparents?

As a former staunch Aoun supporter, I would really like to have answers, to know what happened to such a promising Lebanese leader.

The UN Troops in Lebanon, Shield or Human Shield?

Will the 15,000 or so UN troops shield Lebanon from any future wars, or will they serve as human shields for Hizballa?

If past history is an indicator, the UN troops will play the latter role, human shields. In 1978, when Israel conducted a similar operation to stop the PLO from launching cross-border raids and lobbing Katyushas into Northern Israel, a similar UN force was deployed in the exact same region. When the said UN force tried to interfere with the PLO's military activities in the area, the Palestinian terrorists targeted the UN soldiers killing and wounding many. A compromise was then struck between the UN and the PLO, where the UN would reduce its "interference" and the PLO will stop attacking the UN forces.

I fear the same will happen in 2006-2007. If the UN force decides to disarm Hizballa or to interfere with its military activities, it will be attacked either militarily or through terrorist attacks. At that point, the UN has the option of succeeding in its mission or turning into a human shield. In order to succeed, the UN will need to hit hard if it is attacked. The member states must be willing to send reinforcements and act decisively against the terrorists.

Watching news footage of the arsenal being deployed by the UN forces, I am not very optimistic that the new UNIFIL plans to be a dissuasive force. It will more likely turn into a human shield for Hizballa.

Will Israel Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary?

I see many similarities between today's Israel and the Kingdom of Jerusalem of the 11th century, and I often wonder whether Israel will face the same fate.

The Kingdom of Jerusalem was founded in 1099 as a result of the First Crusade. It was much larger than today's Israel, extending from Lebanon in the North to the Sinai Peninsula in the South. It included Jordan and parts of Syria in the East. Like Israel, it was established and governed by Europeans and was influenced by the Levantine culture. The Kingdom flourished, and became increasingly confident in its security, reaching the point of complacency. Its Moslem neighbors united under the banner of Jihad and led by a brilliant general, Saladdin retook Jerusalem in 1187. The Kindom of Jerusalem lasted a mere 88 years.

Israel is now 48 years old. It is a prosperous, mostly democratic country. Like the Kingdom of Jerusalem, it is surrounded by a sea of hostile, Moslem nations. Recent history has shown that Israel is now much less of a combative state, its population preferring comfort and prosperity to the sacrifices of war. Israel's neighbors have become smarter and more sophisticated. More dangerously, Jihad as an ideology, is taking hold throughout the Arab and Moslem world. Will Israel suffer the fate of the Kingdom of Jerusalem?

Until a few years ago, the answer would have been that this is unthinkable. After all, Israel has the ultimate trump card: tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Israel was also able to secure peace treaties with two of its neighbors, including the formidable Egypt. On the other hand, the nuclear club is, getting increasingly less exclusive, with thrid-world countries like India and Pakistan acquiring "The Bomb". But the ultimate danger will come from rogue states like North Korea and Iran who are governed by irrational ideologues.

Further, Israel's peace treaties will become worthless if the regimes in Egypt and Jordan are overthrown. The formidable Egyptian army, equipped with the latest Western technology and whose officers are being trained in West Point would pose an ominous threat to the existence of Israel. The Jordanian army, although smaller in size, has earned the respect of most Western military experts.

Israel is on a very dangerous and tenuous course and if the current trends endure, it might very well not celebrate its 100th birthday. All it will take is another Saladdin.

And the winner is....

Many analysts have speculated on who won this latest Middle Eastern war. A majority thinks the Hizballa David defeated the Israeli Goliath.

Before we debate who the winner is, let's state who the clear loser is: Lebanon. With over a thousand deaths, a devastated economy, a seriously damaged infrastructure, and the end of an foreseeable tourist boom, Lebanon is the big loser of this war.

The world, however, wants to know who the winner is, and doesn't care much for losers. The two candidates are Israel and Hiballa.

Israel's biggest loss in this war is its deterrence. For a whole month, and to the last day, Israel was not able to even reduce the itensity of the Katyushas striking its North. It was unable to stop Al Manar (Hizballa's TV station) from broadcasting, and suffered relatively heavy losses. The myths of the omnipotence of the Israeli Mossad, the supreme power of the Israeli Air Force and the indestructibility of the Merkava tank have been shattered.

Hizballa's biggest loss was also deterrence. The thousands of rockets and missiles it fired on Israel cause relatively little damage and few casulaties. Ironically, over half of the deaths on the Israeli side were Arabs. This is bad news for Iran who was counting on this deterrence in preventing the US and Israel from hitting its nuclear intallations.

On the ground, the two sides had reached a stalemate. Israel seemed unable to launch its customary lightining fast offensive and was bogged down for a while around Bint Jbeil and Maroun al Ras. Israel's armored corps took the brunt of the casulaties, with pictures reminiscent of the Yom Kipur war. But Israel was able to prove, after some hesitation, that it could strike anywhere in Lebanon through its daring comando operations, in the Baalbeck region and around Tyre. The Israelis were even able to capture a number of Hizballa operatives during these raids.

From a number's perspective, Israel has captured over a dozen Hizballa operatives, a much higher number than the two Israelis captured at the beginning of the war. While Hizballa has kept its casualties secret, there is little doubt that the Shiite militia has suffered heavier losses than the Israeli side.

The reason why there is no clear winner or loser in this war is that the war has not ended. The International Community has just pressed the pause button for a while...

On Hizballa's generosity

Hizballa's generosity towards the civilians who lost their homes is a smart move. It is money well spent by Iran who made a bundle when oil prices jumped as a result of the Hizballa-Israel war.

$12,000 is a good sum of money in Lebanon, families can easily survive for 12 months until their houses are rebuilt by Hizballa's various organizations.

The Iranian proxy in Lebanon will not lose any popularity in its areas of Southern Lebanon and Beirut's Southern suburbs, at least not among the people whose only loss was personal property. But how will Hizballa compensate those who lost loved ones in the fruitless war it initiated? And how will Hizballa compensate the rest of Lebanon for the billions of dollars lost due to a ruined tourist season and the damage to the country's infrastructure? There, Hizballa will not win any contests. And those who stood by Hizballa (e.g. General Michel Aoun) are in an indefensible position. They are no less guilty than Nasrallah!

May the Lebanese vote wisely in the next elections.

What will happen on August 22nd?

There have been many theories as to what Iran might do on August 22nd. Here are some of the facts:

-August 22nd corresponds to the Moslem holiday of Lailat Al Miraj. The holiday occurs on 27 Rajab of the Islamic calendar, and it commemorates the Prophet Muhammed's ascension to heaven. Moslems believe that on that night the prophet was awakened by the angel Gabriel, and then accompanied by Gabriel, the Prophet flew on a winged horse to Jerusalem. There, on the ruins of the temple of Solomon, he prayed with Moses, Jesus and others before ascending to heaven.

-Iran's Ahmadinejad promised the UN that he will provide an answer to the latest proposal for Iran to stop uranium enrichment.

-Like his Lebanese ally, Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad believes he is on a divine mission leading to the victory of Islam.

-There have been rumors in the "intelligence community" that Iran was preparing something "big".

Here's my take on this: Religious extremists tend to like using symbolic dates for perpetrating their grand acts, so something might be brewing for the 27th of Rajab. But will Iran strike Israel or the US? It is unlikely, because the Iranian ayatollahs might be crazy, but they're not stupid. After all, the Iranians invented chess. An attack on either the US or Israel will bring massive retaliation on Iran, possibly destabilizing the regime of the ayatollahs.

If a big thing were to happen, it might be the Iranians testing a nuclear warhead, and thus joining the nuclear Club. This would be quite a coup since Israel and the US would be unlikely to launch an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities once Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs get the bomb. The US would have missed yet another opportunity of stopping a rogue state from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The scenario would be even more interesting if Iran and North Korea test together on August 22nd: there have been signs of suspicious activity at some North Korean nuclear sites...

Hizballa Protecting Lebanon?

Nasrallah says that the Lebanese Army and UN troops cannot defend Lebanon, thus the "Resistance" (meaning Hizballa) needs to retain its weapons. How exactly is Hizballa defending and protecting Lebanon?

Was Hizballa able to stop the Israeli F16's from bombing the Lebanese infrastructure? Was Hizballa able to stop the Israeli gunboats from shelling the Lebanese coastal cities? Was Hizballa able to stop the Israelis from re-occupying the South?

The answer to all of the above questions is no.

As a matter of fact, by hiding among the civilians, and by launching rockets from residential areas and hiding their launchers in residential buildings, Hizballa has endagered the Lebanese and cause the death and injury of thousands of innocent civilians.

Hizballa does not protect the Lebanese, it endangers their lives and well-being!

Hizballa and "Collateral Damage"

One of the key strategies employed by the Israelis in their war against Hizballa is to inflict pain on civilians. They are hoping that the civilians will pressure Hizballa to stop their attacks and somehow submit to the will of the Israelis.

Does Hizballa care if the population suffers? The answer is no. As a matter of fact, the Israeli punishment of the Lebanese civilians plays in the hand of Hizballa for three main reasons:

1. The suffering inflicted on the population makes it more hateful of Israel, and by the same token, more supportive of Hizballa. While this sounds somewhat illogical when seen from a Western point of view, it is quite logical to the population of the Middle East, where emotions are more powerful than rational thought.

2. Hizballa thrives on misery. The misery of the Shiites, who have been hardest hit by this war, provides Hizballa with the opportunity to offer them help. Using the hundreds of millions of dollars provided by Iran, Hizballa will hospitalize the wounded, offer food and necessities to the refugees, and help the people of the South and Beirut's Southern Suburb to rebuild their homes. Nasrallah will then become even more of a hero in the eye of the Shiites.

3. The West hates misery. Seeing pictures of dead civlians, suffering children and destoryed homes will prompt the Western powers to put pressure on Israel, thus restricting the Jewish State's room to maneuver.

It is interesting that the Israelis have not learned from their experience with the Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank: Collective punishment of civilians does not work to their advantage, quite the contrary.

Will the Cease-Fire Hold?

A cease-fire is about to take effect between Israel and Hizballa. The question that every Lebanese is asking is: Will the cease-fire hold? The answer is that it is unlikely and here's why:

-Neither of the warring sides is too keen on this agreement. Hizballa is emboldened by its relative successes on the ground and wants to show the world that they are still as capable as ever. Israel, which has not achieved any of the goals of its military operation, still feels that it has unfinished business with the Iranian proxy.

-The inter-mingling of the Israeli and Hizballa forces on the ground that is due to the rapid advance of the Israeli forces during the last hours of this round, will create plenty of opportunities for clashes that may spiral out of control.

-The UN Security Council resolution is vague, and is full of loopholes that can be exploited or misinterpreted by either side.

-The fighting did not accomlish anything, there was no winner or loser, except for Lebanon, but that doesn't count. Hizballa is slowly clarifying its position vis-a-vis its evacuation of South Lebanon and its disarmament. It is becoming more and more clear that it won't be easy to rid South Lebanon of Nasrallah's fighters, and this will be unacceptable to Israel.

If the cease-fire fails, it is likely that the war will spread regionally, involving Syria and possibly Iran.

How To Turn The Cease Fire Into A Victory For Lebanon

Lebanon was the clear loser of this latest regional war that was fought on its soil. The next step will be to turn this cease-fire into a victory, so that all of the death and destruction would not have been in vain.

The key to a Lebanese victory will be to remove Hizballa's weapons and prevent it from resupplying. The main ingredients of such a victory are:

1. Ensure that the International force that is to be deployed in Lebanon secures the border between Lebanon and Syria, and prevents the re-supply of Hizablla's arsenal.

2. Provide the International troops with a clear mandate that includes the use of force if and when necessary. This will ensure that the troops are respected by all sides and that they are able to enforce their mandate.

3. Once the hostilities are over, the Lebanese politicians need to make it clear to the public and the world that Hizballa bears at least part of the blame for starting this war. The aim of such an initiative is to weaken Hizballa politically before holding elections.

4. Hold new parliamentary elections with the aim of weakening the pro-syrian elements in Lebanon, including Hizballa. One of the pre-requisites for doing so is to bring the Aounist movement back into the March 14 coalition.

5. A strong Lebanese government that is able to rebuild Lebanon and deal with the thorny issue of Hizballa and its weapons.

These 5 points will ensure that Lebanon regains its stability and economic recovery.

On The Foiled Terrorist Plot In The UK

I wonder whether I will be allowed to wear any clothes when I board a flight next year. Adding to the restrictions on sharp objects, the unveiling of today's plot added liquids to the list of banned items.

Airport security is always reactive, precautions are taken after the initial threat has dissipated. Unfortunately for the civilized world, there are not limits to human ingenuity. Jihadi MacGyver wannabees will always find a way to disguise their instruments of death in one way or another.

The problem is that too much attention is focused on the items, and not much is focused on the passenger. There will always be a way to bring items on a plane that can bring it down. Terrorists might very well find a way to bring down a plane with their bare hands. The weakest link in the chain is the terrorist himself, his demeanor,his background etc.

The long term solution, however, is three fold:

1. Invest in intelligence, especially human intelligence. Infiltrate the terror organizations to bring them down. Electronic surveilance has its role to play as well despite the difficulties imposed by the legal systems of our democracies. It was, after all, an intelligence failure that led to 9/11 and an intelligence success that prevented the Heathrow catastrophe.

2. Invest in social services in countries that breed terror. By building schools, hospitals, providing clean water and medical equipment to the poorest Moslem populations, we might be able to lessen the extremism the population in these countries are subjected to. For the price of a cruise missile, we could build a school in Pakistan that will compete with the local madrassah. For the price of an Apache helicopter, we could build a hospital, and so on. Let us show the Arab and Moslem kids the humanity of democracies, not the products of their military industries.

3. Invest in providing Moslem population media outlets that provide their youth with an alternative to the vitriolic media they are subjected to. Radio Sawa and the Al Hurra TV channel are steps in the right direction, but much more is needed to gain the hearts and minds of what could one day become a new generation of terrorists.