Thursday, April 01, 2010

A "Sorcerer" on Death Row

Lebanese astrologist cum fortune teller Ali Sibat has been sentenced to death in Saudi Arabia following his arrest there in May 2008 while he was on a Hajj pilgrimage.

While orthodox Islam forbids sorcery, it only frowns on astrology and fortune telling. There is however no clear definition of sorcery in Islamic texts, and Sibat might very well get beheaded this week by the medieval-minded Saudis and their barbaric religious police.

Continued Saudi-Syrian Rapprochement Undermines March 14

According to generally well-informed sources of the pro-Lebanon March 14 alliance, Saad Hariri was summoned recently to Saudi Arabia and "ordered" to be more accommodating towards Syria and its influence in Lebanon.

This must be a tough pill to swallow for Saad, since the Syrians are widely believed to have killed his father. He nonetheless ordered the media outlets of his Mustakbal (Future) Movement to tone down its anti-Syrian rhetoric. The Hariri scion will also be visiting Syria in mid-April to coordinate better relations with Syria.

One of the reasons for the Saudi move is to gain Syria's support in Iraq in order to counterbalance the increasing Iranian influence there. It is unclear at this point how helpful the Syrians can be in supporting Saudi Arabia's agenda in Iraq, especially considering the close relationship between Iran and Syria, and the fact that Syria has little control or influence over Iraq's Shia community. Syria could however bolster some of the Sunni movements in Iraq and help supply them with men and materiel.

If this ultimately leads to a return of Syria's hegemony over Lebanon, it would be at least the second time that Iraq was the indirect cause for a carte blanche given to the Syrians in Lebanon. Previously the Syrians were allowed to brutally invade the Christian areas of Lebanon in return for its cooperation in the first Gulf War.

Also, if the Mustakbal movement is neutralized vis-a-vis the Syrians, then the March 14 movement will become meaningless after the Syrians were able to peel-off the Druze contingent from it. Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces will be the last significant component of March 14 opposing the Syrians.

It is too early to tell how far Hariri's policies will change beyond pure rhetoric, but if he does, he would be the second leader orphaned by the Syrians to return to their fold, after Walid Jumblatt.

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Ethiopian Flight 409 - The Mystery Continues

There is still no official report on the crash of the Ethiopian airliner off the coast of Naameh, South of Beirut.

While it is not unusual for airline crash investigations to take time, some of the leaks emanating from the Lebanese government are worrisome and seem to indicate a will to hide the true cause of the crash.

In addition, there is tension growing between the Lebanese and Ethiopian governments over the not so subtle accusations of pilot error coming from the Lebanese side.

The lawsuit against Boeing that was just filed in Illinois on behalf of the relatives of the crash victims may help put some clarity into the matter. The American justice system's concept of discovery will no doubt shed much light on the substance of the investigation. Boeing will certainly zealously defend the safety of its planes and, as a result, disclose the real cause of the crash.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Walid Jumblatt - The Living Dead

Walid Jumblatt is a skillful politician, he always seems to manage to take advantage of the latest convoluted twists in Lebanese politics.

This time seems to be different. Jumblatt has crossed the Syrians at the outset of the Cedar Revolution. He has publicly insulted the Syrian regime and its leaders. He has supported the freedom seekers in Lebanon, allied himself with the West. Unforgivable!

Now that the March 14 club has failed to capitalize on its momentum, in part due to petty internal quarrels, and in part due to regional shifts, Jumblatt wants to switch sides, again. He should have learned from his father's ill-fated experience that the Syrians don't forgive nor forget.

It is my prediction that Jumblat's days are numbered, and that he will soon join his father as the latest victim of the Syrian regime, and its insatiable appetite to swallow and digest Lebanon. Jumblatt's death will be a lasting warning to all similarly situated politicians.

Monday, January 25, 2010

The Ethiopian Plane Crash: Many Theories, Few Answers

What are the reasons for the crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 409 south of Beirut? The most logical explanation is that the crash was due to bad weather, especially considering that the plane took off in the middle of a storm.


However, the eyewitness reports that claim that the plane went down in a ball of fire and the fact that the pilots did not contact the control tower, seem to contradict the weather theory. If such report are true, then the weather theory becomes highly unlikely. Bad weather does not cause a plane to suddenly ignite on take-off.

Further, Ethiopian Airlines are the safest airline in Africa, and one of the safest in the world. The 2 fatal incidents involving the airline in recent history include a bird strike, and a hijacking.

There are more likely reasons for the plane to ignite:

  1. One of the two engines caught fire due to mechanical failure, or even sabotage, causing the plane to lose its lift and crash in the Mediterranean. Since this happened early after take-off, the pilots may not have had time to send a mayday to the air controllers.

  2. A bomb on board the plane caused it to ignite and crash. But who would want to crash an Ethiopian airliner? Al Qaida perhaps, because of Ethiopia's role in Somalia?

  3. The plane was hit by some sort of ordnance, either ground or air fire. Again why would someone want to down the Ethiopian airliner? Was it a case of mistaken identity? Hezbollah has been rumored lately of testing AA missiles, did they launch a missile at the wrong time?

  4. The plane hit some flying object, an Israeli drone maybe, or a bird. But this is quite unlikely, precisely because of the weather conditions at the time.

There are certainly more questions than answers at this time. The recovery from the shallow waters south of Beirut of the "black boxes", the plane's fuselage and engines, should go a long way in uncovering the causes of this tragic loss of life.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Justice Ministry Building About to Collapse

This story is not new, but another set of experts have once again declared that the building housing the Justice Ministry is structurally unsound and may collapse in the near future.



Judges, lawyers and their staffers have been aware of this fact for years. But the succeeding governments had better things to do than worry about the imminent collapse of the center of Lebanese Justice.

The bottom line is that we don't need magnitude 7.0 earthquakes to destroy our infrastructure. We can do a much more predictable job ourselves.

Abou Moussa - Outrage of the Week

Said Moussa, better know by his nom de guerre "Abou Moussa", rejected yesterday the disarmament of Palestinian militia outside the refugee camps."This is solely a Palestinian decision and not in the hands of any other power," he added.


It is an outrage that a Palestinian dictates what happens on Lebanese soil, and the bigger outrage is that there was no noticeable response by the Lebanese government. Only the Kataeb party expressed its indignation over the statement.

Palestinian weapons in Lebanon have sown death and destruction since the 50's, and especially during the Lebanese war that started in 1975 killing and maiming hundreds of thousands of Lebanese. Those weapons have also caused the death of thousands of Palestinians during inter-Palestinian clashes. A number of Palestinian militias maintain weapons in Palestinian refugee camps under a de facto agreement dating back to the 1960's. A fewer number of factions, including Gibril's terrorist organization (PFLP) and Abu Mussa's Fatah al Intifada.

What is quite mysterious is why are these organizations allowed to keep their weapons when all militias were disarmed in 1990? As a result, we have in Lebanon a number of militias that militarily control their fiefdoms inside sovereign Lebanese territory, including the various Palestinian factions mostly in the Bekaa and South, and Hizbollah over most of Lebanon.

The Lebanese government needs to take immediate action against Abu Mussa's militia and other Palestinian groups outside of the camps if it is to maintain any semblance of credibility. Dealing with Palestinian weapons in the camps is more politically and militarily difficult and can be undertaken at a later stage.

If no action is taken,  other Lebanese factions will be compelled to re-arm, leading to a dangerous race to building the same militias that brought Lebanon's downfall in the 70's through the 90's.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Haiti: A Wake-Up Call for Lebanon


The earthquake that has hit Haiti had devastating consequences on this impoverished, small nation. The imagery that's emerging is unbearable to watch. What made the devastation worse are the substandard building practices common in Haiti, and the fact that the infrastructure itself was devastated. The government and other services that should have taken care of the victims were themselves almost annihilated by the quake.

Haiti's tragedy should serve as a wake-up call to Lebanon's institutions to be prepared for a similar occurrence. Lebanon lies on a number of active fault lines and the occurrence of a major earthquake is a matter of time.

How would Lebanon fare if a 7 magnitude quake hit Beirut? Would the airport and seaport remain operational to receive foreign aid? Would the hospitals remain operational? Would the water, electricity and telecommunications networks survive?
And who could coordinate the rescue and recovery efforts? Would that entity and its capabilities survive the quake?

According to seismologists, Lebanon is overdue for a significant quake. The frequent tremors felt some time ago in the Tyre area are only a reminder that Lebanon is also seismically unstable. The major known faults are the Roum fault in  the South which has been most recently active (and was behind the deadly quake of 1956), the Yammouneh fault in the Bekaa which has been dormant, and the most worrisome is the underwater fault that's 4 kilometers off Beirut and was responsible for a Tsunami that destroyed the city in 551 A.D. There is no telling when any of these faults will cause a massive quake that could devastate the country.

The government needs to setup a disaster recovery plan, a plan that would assess the survivability of critical infrastructure and institutions, designate alternatives and most importantly set a minimum standard for an earthquake-resistant code for new constructions.

The clock is ticking, and one day it will be too late.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Red Indians?

Druze leader Walid Jumblat compared the Maronites and the Druze with the Red Indians (meaning Native Americans).

The Christians of Lebanon are certainly weaker in power and numbers. They are weaker in number because they have the skills to immigrate and be more successful outside of Lebanon than inside. This is the blessing and the curse brought to us by our excellent education system, and our dedication, as a community, to giving our children the best education possible.

We are weaker politically (and non-existent militarily) because of the Aoun - Geagea conflict (really a conflict between the Aounists and most of the other Christian parties). While the ideologies have evolved over the years, the schism still exists. It is based less on ideology than strategy: Do the Christians align themselves with Hizballa, Iran and Syria or the more moderate Sunnis, supported by the Saudis, and the West.

So far Aoun's alliances have proved to be much more useful to him than the March 14 Christians alliances. His Hizballa and Syro-Iranian allies, while using him, are granting him increasing levels of power and seats in the Lebanese government. On the other hand, the March 14 Christians are getting scraps, leftover from the big dogs.

Sunday, November 08, 2009

The Dawn of a "New" Government?


It appears that after a 4-month deadlock, a "new" government will be formed in Lebanon within the next hours or days. This is good news, the lack of government caused much uncertainty in the country, and a degree of paralysis within government institutions.

The not so good news is the composition of the government: Hizballa and its allies will get all the ministries that they wanted, including the key Telecom ministry, allowing the Iranian proxy to spy on the communications of the Lebanese, and to maintain a parallel communications network that is beyond the reach of the Lebanese government.

This "new" government is likely to bear much resemblance to the previous one, despite the results of the parliamentary elections that won the pro-democracy March 14 movement the majority of parliament seats.

Not much change is expected as a result. Hizballa keeps its weapons and its capability to bring war upon the Lebanese. The country will remain deadlocked, especially with respect to badly-needed reform. And finally the Lebanese will remain hostage to the overall situation in the Middle East and the cold war between Iran and the West.

Friday, November 06, 2009

Mention of Anne Frank Censored in Lebanon School

Le Figaro, a leading French newspaper, reported today that Hizballa forced a Lebanese private school to censor history books containing passages from Anne Frank's diary.

The article can be found here: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2009/11/06/01011-20091106FILWWW00466-anne-frank-censuree-au-liban.php

Anne Frank was a Jewish child who lived in hiding in the Netherlands to escape Nazi persecution during WWII, and died in a concentration camp. Her diary which was uncovered posthumously after the war offers a poignant testimony of the suffering engendered by the Nazis.

For those Lebanese who still believe that Hizballa is open-minded, and will not interfere in the private lives of Lebanese citizens to impose its warped views, this should be a wake-up call.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Increased Intel Activity - Ominous Sign?


The increased intelligence/covert activity in South Lebanon, combined with regional events, could be telltale signs of upcoming military activity in the region.

The suspicious explosion in Tayr Felsay (at a suspected Hizballa arms depot), watched by an Israeli drone that just happened to be there is intriguing. Add to it yesterday's explosions of Israeli "spying devices" allegedly detonated by Israeli drones, thicken the plot. The devices seemed to be aimed at Hizballa's extensive communications network.

The Israelis claim these were staged by the pro-Iranian group to detract attention from the Tayr Felsay explosion, which caught the Hizballa red handed with missiles in the supposedly demilitarized zone. The Israeli theory is logical, especially that UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army were granted unfettered access to the sites, which is unusual.

Add to the above the regional tensions created by the successful attack aimed at Iranian Revolutionary Guard (RG) leadership in Sarbaz in the southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province. The suicide blast killed Nour-Ali Shoushtari, the second highest ranking officer of the RG, and the man in charge of Iran's foreign military operations in Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Finally this is all happening withe the clock ticking inexorably towards a nuclear Iran. Indeed, the Iranians who invented chess, are constantly outmaneuvering the West in order to gain the only potentially scarce material for their nuclear program: time.

It is becoming clear that unless Israel takes action in extremis, that a nuclear Iran is a foregone conclusion.

Monday, October 27, 2008

The Unusual Cross Border Attack Into Syria: A Warning to Bashar?


What is most striking about the attack against a Syrian farm across the border from Iraq is that the US has waited so long to do this.

Cross border attacks from Afghanistan into the Pakistani tribal areas have been routine business for a long time. These are meant to hit Al Qaeda and Taliban elements seeking refuge on the Pakistani side of the border, who themselves launch attacks against Afghan and coalition forces in Afghanistan. These operations have been remarkably successful in neutralizing terrorist leadership on the Pakistani-Afghan border.

The situation on the Syrian-Iraqi border has been similar: Terrorist fighters and weapons have been entering into Iraq from Syria, causing countless deaths among the Iraqi civilians, and coalition forces. The difference is that the US and its coalition partners have not done much about this, taking blows without responding.

This raises the obvious question: Why now?

Several theories present themselves:

1. The Bush administration is trying to detract attention from the current economic crisis and is somehow trying to get the McCain-Palin ticket elected. This is a fairly weak theory since the incident is of a small impact and won't make much ink flow, at least not in the US. If the US wanted to start an international incident, they would have sought a naval incident with Iran, sunk a couple of Iranian warships, for example.

2. This is business as usual, and an escalation of security operations in Northern Iraq, in the Mosul area. Mosul is the last significant Al Qaeda stronghold in Iraq, and is supplied in men and weapons from Syria. The US might have decided to put an end to that lifeline once and for all.

3. This is a warning message to Syria. It is unclear what the message is about, but it might be related to the situation in Iraq, pressuring the Syrians to maintain a tighter control on the border. Or the warning could be related to Lebanon. The Syrians have been massing their forces on the Lebanese border and making ominous threats. Some in Lebanon have been quite anxious of a Syrian invasion. The generally well informed Debka site posted this map of the Syrian deployments on the Lebanese border.

Whatever the reason might be, this raid is a clear indication that the Bush administration will maintain its no nonsense policy towards terrorists and their supporters.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Qatar: The New Cairo Accord?




The Qatar deal among the bickering (and sometimes warring) Lebanese factions left a bad taste in my mouth. A déja vu taste, reminiscent of the " foul fool" of the Cairo Accord of the late 60's that established a de facto PLO state within the State of Lebanon.

We now have a Hezballah state within the State, since "Qatar" implicitly recognized the terrorist organization's right to operate its guerilla, its telecommunications network and other institutions within Lebanon, and with total impunity.

The parallels are striking, I can only hope that the results will be less devastating to Lebanon.

Another consequence of Qatar was to provide Heballah and its allies (aka the "opposition") with a veto power within the Lebanese Cabinet.

It is no wonder that Syria and Iran hailed the accord, but it is surprising that the West was "satisfied".

Has Lebanon just been sold to the Syro Iranian axis? What is the West getting in return?

Quoting a generally well-informed Middle East analyst: "The Qatar deal marks the most resounding strategic debacle the West has experienced [in the Middle East] since Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2005 and Israel’s failure to defeat Hizbollah in 2006."

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Is Michel Suleiman Still Credible?


The latest events in Lebanon are casting a new shadow on Gen. Suleiman's credibility as a fair Lebanese leader, capable of leading the country to peace, prosperity and democracy.

Suleiman is suspect, first and foremost, because he was appointed during a time when Syria controlled Lebanon and all of its institutions. At the time, the Lebanese Army under Suleiman's leadership was responsible for oppressing the Lebanese who supported a Free Lebanon.

Since Syria's departure, Suleiman has not purged the Army from officers who were appointed by the Syrian regime in key positions. This may be due to the fact that he was one of them.

Suleiman's military has collaborated closely with Hizballa on many occasions, despite the fact that Hizballa is an illegal militia both from a Lebanese and an international perspective (i.e. various UN resolutions and the list of the Shiite militia as a terrorist organization by many states).

Finally, during the recent coup against the Lebanese government, Suleiman has done virtually nothing to prevent Hizballa from attacking rival media outlets, and private property including the burning of hundreds of civilian cars and the pillaging of the residences and offices of Members of the Lebanese Parliament. This has taken place under the watchful eye of Lebanese Army personnel and armored vehicles. The Lebanese Army went as far as request that Future TV stop its broadcasting "or else Hizballa would level the building" ...

Interesting Facts Surrounding Hizballa's "Coup"


While a lot has been written regarding the latest events of the week of May 4, 2008, some interesting conclusions can already be drawn:

  1. The Lebanese cannot count on the West or moderate Arabs to defend them. The US, France, the UN and various Arab countries limited themselves to timid protests and appeals to a peaceful resolution of the situation. The UN's reaction was particularly weak, especially in light of the gross violations of resolutions 1559 and 1701 on the part of Hizballa and its allies.
  2. By using its weapons and attacking Lebanese civilians, Hizballa has clearly shown that the said weapons can also be used to maintain their internal hegemony over its allies and enemies.
  3. By burning and ravaging the media outlets and private businesses and charitable institutions of their rivals, Hizballa and its allies have provided a glimpse into what Lebanon might be like under their control.
  4. The Assad portraits that have resurfaced in Hizballa-controlled Beirut, are a clear indication of the opposition's agenda: namely the return of the Syrian hegemony over Lebanon.
  5. The Lebanese Army lost a certain amount of credibility vis a vis the Lebanese by not performing its duties. It failed to protect the civilian population from the onslaught of armed militiamen, and did not lift a finger to protect public and private property from the onslaught of vandals and looters. The Army was watching passively as militiamen broke into the Sunni media outlets and set them on fire.
  6. A jubilant Aoun showed his true colors by declaring victory on behalf of Hizballa. His politburo had a tough time back-pedaling following his televised remarks.
  7. Aoun showed the strong yellow tones of his Orange TV. It became the Christian arm of Hizballa's Al Manar TV. As a matter of fact, one would be hard pressed to tell the two apart.
  8. The Sunni militias are an ineffective fighting force, especially when faced with the Hizballa and Amal militiamen. They collapsed entirely when under military pressure, and were unable to inflict any significant casualties on the assailants despite being on the defensive and having a tactical advantage.
  9. Jumblatt's Druze militiamen, on the other hand, held their ground and inflicted a large number of casualties on the Hizballa assailants. Clearly, the mountain will be harder to invade than Beirut.
  10. The Christian areas were mostly unscathed except from damage due to stray (and some not so stray) bullets coming from West Beirut. It is unclear whether the Christians would have been able to defend their areas effectively and whether the Aounists would have fought their fellow Christians on behalf of the Syro-Iranian axis.

Assad's Back in Beirut


With Bashar Assad's pictures back on the walls of Beirut, there is little question as to where the "opposition's" loyalty lies, and as to its ultimate agenda: the return on Syria's grip on Lebanon.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Moghniyeh: Who Did it and Why?


Imad Moghniyeh had a taste of his own poison when he was blown up in Damascus two days ago. He was killed by explosives, the way he, himself, killed thousands of people. The difference is that those who killed Moghniyeh wanted to avoid killing innocent civilians by placing a small charge is the car carrying the terrorist.

Many are wondering who killed the terror mastermind and Hizballa's military chief. Theories abound, but the consequences are clear:

  • The death of Moghniyeh is both a blow to the morale of Hizballa and their operational capabilities. He was the terrorist organization's most trusted and capable operative.

  • The locale of the attack on Moghniyeh is a double blow to the Syrian regime: they were caught hosting one of the most wanted terrorists alive on one hand, and they have failed to protect him on the other.

  • The death of Moghniyeh is a clear signal to other terrorists that they cannot escape justice wherever they are.
The theories about the commandeers and perpetrators of Moghniyeh's killing are numerous:

  1. The Israelis did it. This is the most likely theory, given that Israeli intelligence is well renowned for this type of very targeted and complex operations. This theory is especially likely since the operation is almost identical to the one, also is Damascus, that has taken the life of Islamic Jihad leader Ghaleb Ghali 4 years ago.

  2. The Americans did it. This is a more unlikely scenario, despite the fact that the US has tried to kill Moghniyeh before. The US intelligence agencies tend to lack the capability to conduct such operations, even though such capabilities have been improving since 9/11.

  3. Nasrallah did it. It is widely believed that the Iranians have relieved Nasrallah from his command of the military arm of Hizballa following the war with Israel in the Summer of 2006. It is also believed that this has caused a schism within the terrorist organization. Could this have been a way for Nasrallah to reassert himself as the supreme military and political leader of the "Islamic Resistance"?

  4. The Syrians did it (scenario 1). The Syrian regime might have executed Moghniyeh in return for some major favor from the US and the West. Further, the Bush administration's almost simultaneous sanctions against the Syrian regime are nothing but a decoy in an attempt to protect the Syrian regime from any suspicion in the matter.

  5. The Syrians did it (scenario 2). A rogue element in the Syrian security apparatus that is loyal to the Sunni majority (people loyal to Khaddam) might have conducted the operation at the request of Saudi Arabia or a Western Power (the US or France).
Other, less credible, theories include the French, the Lebanese Forces, the Kuwaitis etc.

The real question is: What next? When will Hizballa retaliate, against whom and how?

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

The Lebanese Curse: Reliance on Foreigners

Lebanon has been cursed twice: once by having Syria and Israel as neighbors, and the second time by having its people rely on foreign powers to solve its problems.

This probably dates back to the Phoenicians, and still stays embedded deep into our DNA. During the Ottoman Empire, the Sunnis had the power since they were supported by the Ottomans. The French supported the Maronites, the Russians and the Greek supported the Orthodox, the British supported the Druze. When the Ottomans had problems with the Russians, the Orthodox were in trouble, when the French and the British didn't get along, the Maronites and Druze butchered each other, etc.

This is still largely the case today, but the alliances are more dynamic, and often confusing. The Shiite community relies on Iran and, to some extent, Syria. The Sunnis rely on Saudi Arabia and the US. The Druze are currently aligned with the US, but will quickly switch alliances in due time. The Christians are confused: some are allies with France and the US, others are allied with Syria and Iran. Due to the tensions in the Middle East, the various Lebanese denominations are at odds with each other. We are always hoping that regional detente will bring peace and stability to the country. We monitor closely each peace summit, each statement by such or such Foreign Minister, looking for a solution to our internal problems.

How did we get there? And more importantly, how do we get out of this status quo?
I believe there are a number of root causes to this state of affairs. There are:

1. Lack of true nationalism. Because Lebanon had been part of the Ottoman Empire for over 400 years until less than 100 years ago, it is a bit normal for us to be a bit confused about our national identity.

2. Lack of a vision for Lebanon. As Lebanese, we don't really know what sort of Lebanon we want. This has never been discussed in political forums, except in destructive ways. Various political leaders have declared our identity as being Arab and wanted to join some form of Arab union, others have declared their allegiance to the Muslim Ummah (nation), others want a regional unity as part of a Greater Syria, others praise their Phoenician ancestry etc. ad nauseam.

3. Lack of trust. Various Lebanese religious groups (and we have a full mosaic worth) don't trust each other, and in order to protect themselves from other groups, they forge alliances with outside powers.

4. Weak central government. For most of its modern history, the Lebanese government has been weak, and various political and sectarian groups felt that they had to take matters into their own hands in order to protect their communities' interests and well-being.

Our hope is for a person, party or political movement to be able to articulate a national vision, and provide a strong government that will allow the various parties on the Lebanese scene to trust each other. A strong educational curriculum that teaches the young generations about their civic duties and sense of belonging to one nation will ensure that future generation will not fall into the same traps as our ancestors, parents and us.

Do We All Want The Same Lebanon?

Do all Lebanese want the same Lebanon?

I believe that the overwhelming majority of Lebanese fundamentally want the same Lebanon. I wish I could organize a referendum on the following principles for the Lebanese to realize that they really want the same thing.

Let's state these fundamentals:

1. Lebanon as a country for all Lebanese, one and indivisible

2. Lebanon should be a democracy, where individual freedoms are respected

3. Lebanon should practice free economic principles and create a positive investment climate

4. Lebanon should declare its neutrality in all world conflicts, and become a true Switzerland of the East

5. Lebanese living abroad should have voting rights in Lebanon

6. The government should offer an alternative to the religious courts that govern personal life in Lebanon (e.g. marriage, divorce, inheritance etc.) This will facilitate the transition of the country to a modern society from a highly sectarian one, and facilitate intermarriage across religious sects.


I believe that at least 75% of Lebanese would agree with the above principles. But then, the other 25% might be the ones with guns...