These two events mean one thing, namely that this war is not nearing its end. Israel has no choice but defeating Hizballa, and this will clearly take time. Any other outcome will send a signal to the Arab world that Israel can be defeated, and will encourage military adventurism on the part of the Arabs and Iran. The said signal might even cause the fall of some of the moderate Arab governments on the hands of the masses smelling Israeli blood. And the failure of the International community in agreeing on a solution to the conflict means that there is no political defeat for Hizballa on the horizon.
The IDF has, so far, been quite aggressive from the air, but timid on the ground. It has committed limited resources in engaging Hizballa on the ground, has has paid for it in excessive casualties today. I expect a change in strategy in the next 48 hours where the IDF will accelerate its ground offensive by committing much larger forces, but victory for the IDF is most likely weeks away.
There are, however, three possible (but unlikely) events could lead to a rapid end to this war:
- By some extraordinary intelligence feat, Israel is able to decimate the Hizballa leadership by hitting their secret bunkers.
- An Israeli blunder causes a large number of civilian casualties, putting enormous pressure on Israel and its allies to accept a cease fire. Such a blunder will become increasingly likely as the IDF intensifies and accelerates its offensive.
- An incident takes place that threatens to expand the war regionally, such as a skirmish between Israeli and Syrian forces.
1 comment:
You left out an option number 4, a very likely option given the short-term nature of U.S. policy and the long-term vision of dictators who can think beyond the timeframe of a 4-year election: (4). Syria as usualy will be rewarded for all its misdeeds in order to satisfy short-term U.S. policy interests and to help Republicans in the upcoming Congressional elections. The U.S. will beg Syria to bring peace and stability to their Lebanese brothers by bringin back their army. After all, look what a mess Lebanon has been since the peace keeping Syriance left. And if Syria agrees to a peace deal with Israel at the same time, and agrees to distance themselves from Iran, then Syria will get back the Golan Heights (this will de facto settle the question of who Shebaa Farms belongs to). Yes, of course we would be rewarding bad behavior by Syria and create a neighbor to Israel that in its heart of hearts really wants to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. But that will be for the next administration to deal with. Yes, Israel will miss an opportunity for peace with the only bordering country who could share economic and intellectual interests. But that is too far out and fuzzy for anybody to care about. So who is to say option 4 doesn't happen?
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