Will the Cease-Fire Hold?

A cease-fire is about to take effect between Israel and Hizballa. The question that every Lebanese is asking is: Will the cease-fire hold? The answer is that it is unlikely and here's why:

-Neither of the warring sides is too keen on this agreement. Hizballa is emboldened by its relative successes on the ground and wants to show the world that they are still as capable as ever. Israel, which has not achieved any of the goals of its military operation, still feels that it has unfinished business with the Iranian proxy.

-The inter-mingling of the Israeli and Hizballa forces on the ground that is due to the rapid advance of the Israeli forces during the last hours of this round, will create plenty of opportunities for clashes that may spiral out of control.

-The UN Security Council resolution is vague, and is full of loopholes that can be exploited or misinterpreted by either side.

-The fighting did not accomlish anything, there was no winner or loser, except for Lebanon, but that doesn't count. Hizballa is slowly clarifying its position vis-a-vis its evacuation of South Lebanon and its disarmament. It is becoming more and more clear that it won't be easy to rid South Lebanon of Nasrallah's fighters, and this will be unacceptable to Israel.

If the cease-fire fails, it is likely that the war will spread regionally, involving Syria and possibly Iran.