Monday, January 25, 2010

The Ethiopian Plane Crash: Many Theories, Few Answers

What are the reasons for the crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 409 south of Beirut? The most logical explanation is that the crash was due to bad weather, especially considering that the plane took off in the middle of a storm.


However, the eyewitness reports that claim that the plane went down in a ball of fire and the fact that the pilots did not contact the control tower, seem to contradict the weather theory. If such report are true, then the weather theory becomes highly unlikely. Bad weather does not cause a plane to suddenly ignite on take-off.

Further, Ethiopian Airlines are the safest airline in Africa, and one of the safest in the world. The 2 fatal incidents involving the airline in recent history include a bird strike, and a hijacking.

There are more likely reasons for the plane to ignite:

  1. One of the two engines caught fire due to mechanical failure, or even sabotage, causing the plane to lose its lift and crash in the Mediterranean. Since this happened early after take-off, the pilots may not have had time to send a mayday to the air controllers.

  2. A bomb on board the plane caused it to ignite and crash. But who would want to crash an Ethiopian airliner? Al Qaida perhaps, because of Ethiopia's role in Somalia?

  3. The plane was hit by some sort of ordnance, either ground or air fire. Again why would someone want to down the Ethiopian airliner? Was it a case of mistaken identity? Hezbollah has been rumored lately of testing AA missiles, did they launch a missile at the wrong time?

  4. The plane hit some flying object, an Israeli drone maybe, or a bird. But this is quite unlikely, precisely because of the weather conditions at the time.

There are certainly more questions than answers at this time. The recovery from the shallow waters south of Beirut of the "black boxes", the plane's fuselage and engines, should go a long way in uncovering the causes of this tragic loss of life.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

First of all, I dont think the plane crash was caused by a lightening, or any technical errors, because the pilot would have time to report it back or at least no explosion sound would have been loudly heard, or fire ball crashing would have been seen when fell in such tragedic way.As most passengers which were firstly found were from the first class, as the hit was targetted to there for whom it was carrying or whom it was supposed to carry. Second of all, wouldn't be caused by Hezzbolah since most of people that were on board, are biased toward hezzbolah and one of them and a really powerful person and with many connections was Tajjedine, who was too close to Hezzballah. Last, it is said that an important member of hezzbollah and a strong ally from the parliament were supposed to be on that plane. I mostly think the plane was hit or a bomb explosion occured on the plane, by an isralian act or others which served their best interests. The plane fell, few minutes after taken off, as someone was waiting to take its best shot. Moreover, I think the truth will never be revealed since, even when the black box will be found, since it is a conspiracy of many and not of one interest only.

Erasmus said...

I agree, based on the latest findings, it is clear that Hezballah is unlikely to have done this.

The information about an explosion before the crash, or the "fire ball" are just rumors at this point. Many stories emerge after such an accident, not all of which are true.

If this is indeed sabotage, I agree that it is in nobody's interest for the truth to emerge. Yet the truth might still emerge.

Anonymous said...

Dear Anonymous

could you tell me the full name of Tajjedine? How can you know that he was on board?

Erasmus said...

It is funny that one anonymous poster is asking another for his/her name.

Hassan Tajeddine is from the town of Hanaway and had a thriving business in Angola. He is thought to have ties to the "blood diamond" trade in Africa, and strong ties to Hezballah. Those ties became all the more clear during his funeral procession that was attended by key Hezballah cadres.

A Lebanese paper (Al Liwaa) also reported that a Hezballah member of parliament was scheduled to be on the same flight along with another cadre of the organization, but canceled at the last minute. Hezballah denied the claim.