How To Turn The Cease Fire Into A Victory For Lebanon

Lebanon was the clear loser of this latest regional war that was fought on its soil. The next step will be to turn this cease-fire into a victory, so that all of the death and destruction would not have been in vain.

The key to a Lebanese victory will be to remove Hizballa's weapons and prevent it from resupplying. The main ingredients of such a victory are:

1. Ensure that the International force that is to be deployed in Lebanon secures the border between Lebanon and Syria, and prevents the re-supply of Hizablla's arsenal.

2. Provide the International troops with a clear mandate that includes the use of force if and when necessary. This will ensure that the troops are respected by all sides and that they are able to enforce their mandate.

3. Once the hostilities are over, the Lebanese politicians need to make it clear to the public and the world that Hizballa bears at least part of the blame for starting this war. The aim of such an initiative is to weaken Hizballa politically before holding elections.

4. Hold new parliamentary elections with the aim of weakening the pro-syrian elements in Lebanon, including Hizballa. One of the pre-requisites for doing so is to bring the Aounist movement back into the March 14 coalition.

5. A strong Lebanese government that is able to rebuild Lebanon and deal with the thorny issue of Hizballa and its weapons.

These 5 points will ensure that Lebanon regains its stability and economic recovery.

On The Foiled Terrorist Plot In The UK

I wonder whether I will be allowed to wear any clothes when I board a flight next year. Adding to the restrictions on sharp objects, the unveiling of today's plot added liquids to the list of banned items.

Airport security is always reactive, precautions are taken after the initial threat has dissipated. Unfortunately for the civilized world, there are not limits to human ingenuity. Jihadi MacGyver wannabees will always find a way to disguise their instruments of death in one way or another.

The problem is that too much attention is focused on the items, and not much is focused on the passenger. There will always be a way to bring items on a plane that can bring it down. Terrorists might very well find a way to bring down a plane with their bare hands. The weakest link in the chain is the terrorist himself, his demeanor,his background etc.

The long term solution, however, is three fold:

1. Invest in intelligence, especially human intelligence. Infiltrate the terror organizations to bring them down. Electronic surveilance has its role to play as well despite the difficulties imposed by the legal systems of our democracies. It was, after all, an intelligence failure that led to 9/11 and an intelligence success that prevented the Heathrow catastrophe.

2. Invest in social services in countries that breed terror. By building schools, hospitals, providing clean water and medical equipment to the poorest Moslem populations, we might be able to lessen the extremism the population in these countries are subjected to. For the price of a cruise missile, we could build a school in Pakistan that will compete with the local madrassah. For the price of an Apache helicopter, we could build a hospital, and so on. Let us show the Arab and Moslem kids the humanity of democracies, not the products of their military industries.

3. Invest in providing Moslem population media outlets that provide their youth with an alternative to the vitriolic media they are subjected to. Radio Sawa and the Al Hurra TV channel are steps in the right direction, but much more is needed to gain the hearts and minds of what could one day become a new generation of terrorists.

More Arabs Killed by Hizballa

After the deadly attacks in Haifa a few days ago that claimed the lives of Israeli Arabs, two more Arabs were killed and 11 wounded in the Northern village of Deir El Assad. 5-year old Fathi Assadi and his 26-year old mother Miryam were killed when a Katyusha landed on their home.

The sentiment of the Arabs in Israel is bound to turn against the Shiite militia. There were some anti-Hizballa demonstrations in Haifa following the missile attacks there, two days ago. I expect there will be more...

Curiously, the Israeli media has not capitalized on these events, and obviously, the Lebanese media barely covered them.

Hizballa's Many Achievements In Lebanon

For those who have a short memory, and think of Hizballa as some force of Good in Lebanon, let's list some of the achievements of Hizballa and their effects on Lebanon.

• April 18, 1983: Hizballa rams a van laden with explosives against the US emabssy in Beirut, destorying the building, and killing 46 Lebanese and 17 US citizens. This was a blow to Lebanon, who was recovering from a bloody Israeli invasion to root out the PLO from the country. 46 Lebanese lives were deemed and acceptable price for killing 17 Americans. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• October 23, 1983: Hizballa attacks the US Marines and French paratrooper barracks in Beirut. 241 Americans, 58 French and 8 Lebanese were killed. The Lebanese included one woman and her 4 children. As a result of the attack against the International peacekeeping force in Lebanon, the country collapsed into chaos which resulted in the death of thousands of Lebanese. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• September 20, 1984: Hizballa launched another suicide truck against the US embassy annex, killing 20 Lebanese and only two Americans. Lebanon became increasingly isolated and a symbil of international terrorism. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• June 14, 1985: Hizballa hijacks TWA flight 847 killing a US Navy diver and keeping dozens of passengers captive for weeks. This led to the increasing isolation of Lebanon, most western airlines stopped flying into Beirut and MEA was forbidden to fly into the US. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• Throughout the 80's: Hizballa kidnaps over 30 Westerners, mainly French, Americans and British. The kidnapped were journalists, teachers, a peacekeeper and an Anglican Church envoy. Some of the kidnapped were tortured to death, others died due to the poor conditions of their captivity. This further isolated Lebanon and further ruined its reputation. The AUB and BUC were emptied of all of their US staff. End result for Lebanon: Negative
  



• 18 April 1996: As a result of Hizballa shelling of Israeli positions, Israel launched a campaign it called Operation Grapes of Wrath. During the back and forth shelling, Israel hit a UN compound with artillery killing 106 Lebanese civilians who were seeking refuge in the base. Hizballah had been firing mortar rounds about 50 meters from where the civilians were. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• Throrughout the 80's and 90's, Hizballa lauched many attacks against the Israeli forces occupying Lebanon. These attacks often resulted in killing Lebanese civilians living in the "Security Zone", in addition to the Lebanese who were killed during Israeli retaliations. In the end, Hizballa managed to wear the Israelis out, and they left the Security Zone. While the so called "liberation" of South Lebanon can be seen as a positive development, leading to stability, security and prosperity for the Southern Lebanese, the same result could have been accomplished by guaranteeing the security of Israel's Northern border. Worse, as soon as Israel withdrew, Hizballa and its Syrian allies invented a new excuse for maintaining violence in Southern Lebanon. The excuse was Shebaa Farms, a territory taken by the Israelis from the Syrian army, never before contested by Lebanon, always depicted as part of the Golan heights. South Lebanon was again destined for more violence at the hand of Hizballa. End result for Lebanon: Negative
  

July 12, 2006: Hizballa launched an unprovoked cross-border attack against an Israeli patrol, killing 8 soldiers and capturing 2 others. This unleashed the worst violence seen by both the Lebanese and Israeli populations. Hundreds of Lebanese civilians dead and wounded, billions of dollars of Lebanese infrastructure destroyed, billions of dollars of business losses, a promising tourist season aborted, an ecological disaster hits the Lebanese shore. All this misery, for what purpose? End result for Lebanon: Hugely Negative


It is time for Lebanon to rid itself of this cancer that has been plaguing it for years. It is time for the Lebanese to live in peace and dignity. It is time for Lebanon to regain its full independence and not be held hostage to foreign interests. It is time for Lebanon to regain its prosperity, and its role in the Middle East.

Lebanon Rejects The Draft UN Resolution!!

Incredible but true! The Lebanese government has rejected the draft UN resolution that would have ended the misery of the people of Lebanon. In doing so, the Lebanese government has aligned itself completely with Hizballa.

I do not buy the argument of the Lebanese government, that it really cares about the handful of Lebanese held in Israeli jails for conducting attacks against Israeli civilians or the IDF. If it did, it would have acted for the release of the hundreds of Lebanese detained arbitrarily in Syrian jails. It would have cared about the Lebanese Army soldiers that are missing after being captured by the Syrian army, during its invasion of the areas controllerd by General Michel Aoun.

After rejecting this plan of salvation extended by the UN, the Lebanese government, like Hizballa, bears the responsibility for the suffering of the Lebanese population. The next step is for the Lebanese people to demonstrate in support of the UN draft resolution, to tell their government that enough suffering on behalf of Hizballa is enough. All the Lebanese really want, is to live in peace and continue rebuilding their country that was so many times destroyed on behalf of the various Arab causes.

Three Arab Women Die In Hizballa Attack

A Hizballa Katyusha rocket killed three women in the Arab village of Arab El Aramche in Northern Israel today. Fadia Jemaa and her two daughters, Samira and Sultana were killed when the short-range Katyusha rocket hit their living room.

This is at least the second time that Hizballa has hit an Arab village and killed Arab civilians. What is interesting is that the Arab and Lebanese media never mentions the ethnic background of these casualties. Is Hizballa censoring the Lebanese press?

What is more interesting is what this says about Hizballa's abilities and tactics: Hizballa seems to fire randomly at the Israeli North relying on chance to hit civilian and military targets. Because of this, the thousands of missiles and rockets they have fired so far had a limited impact on the Israelis. The formidable Hizballa arsenal lost its deterrence towards Israel, and Iran is disappointed. In case Israel hits the Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran will not be able to use Hizballa to retaliate, it will have to do so on its own, risking a full-fledged war with Israel.

Nasrallah Tried .... But Failed

According to credible sources, the long range missile that was fired by Hizballa today was headed towards Tel Aviv. It was shot down by an Israeli missile defense system and crashed near Hadera, about 30 miles off target.

According to the same sources, the missile launcher was easily detected by the IAF and wiped out.

Is Tel Aviv Next?

Today, Hizballa's leader threatened to target the Israeli capital, Tel Aviv whenever Israel bombs the Lebanese capital, Beirut. It is interesting to note that the Israelis declared Jerusalem as their capital since 1950.

Tonight, barely a few hours after the threat, Israel bombed Southern Beirut again, defying Nasrallah.

What will Hizballa do tomorrow? I have no doubt that Nasrallah's militia will attempt to launch their longer range missiles towards Tel Aviv, otherwise their fearless leader wil lose face. Such a retaliation raises a few interesting questions:

1. How will Israel's missile defense systems perform in disrupting the missiles?
2. How many of its long range launchers will Hizballa expose to almost certain destruction, since the launch of such missiles leaves an unmistakable smoke and heat signature that the IAF is certain to locate.
3. Most importantly, how will Israel react if missiles cause death and destruction in their economic and financial capital.

The answer to the third question is not obvious. If Israel carries its threat to destroy Lebanese infrastructure, then it will be doing Nasrallah a favor. This will further inflame the world against Israel and increase the pressure on the Jewish State to accept a cease-fire.

What else can Israel do, since it is already hitting all Hizballa positions it knows about over and over again. One option is to hit Hizballa where it hurts most: the civilian areas under its control. For example, Israel could destroy electricity and water supplies to the main Shiite strongholds in the South and the Bekaa. It could even conduct punitive raids against Baalbeck.

But can Israel afford another Qana? In this game of chess, one loser is known in advance: the Lebanese population.

A Conspiracy Theory, Or Two...

I am not a fan of conspiracy theories despite their popularity in the Middle East. However, I'm a bit confused by the clumsiness of the IAF.

First, the IAF destroys a clearly marked UN observation post, killing 4 UN observers. This incident has, no doubt, sent chills down the spine of any country that was considering sending peacekeepers to Lebanon. This was, indeed, a very unproductive act.

Today, the IAF levels a building serving as a shelter to many children in Qana, the same Qana where the IDF committed another terrible mistake 10 years ago. The carnage is no less devastating in terms of its human toll and forces Israel to accept a cease-fire it has been resisting for 2 weeks.

Note that the conspiracy theories below are only meant to generate a discussion and are not meant as serious analytical theories.

Conspiracy theory #1: Hizballa is pointing their own laser target designators, illuminating buildings of their choosing and confusing Israel's smart bombs into hitting the wrong target. By doing so, the Iranian proxy is cornering Israel diplomatically.

Conspiracy theory #2: Instead of using technology to confuse the IAF targeting, Hizballa is using double agents to achieve the same purpose.

Conspiracy theory #3: Condi pressures Ehud to announce a cease-fire. Ehud does not want to lose face so he creates this incident as an excuse for a cease-fire.


What do you think is behind these two puzzling events?

Not another Qana!

What has happened in Qana today is absolutely horrible. This terrible loss of innocent life (over 54 dead, many of them children) will be remembered by the Lebanese as another dark episode in their history with Israel. This massacre due to the sloppy targeting by the IAF will weigh on Israel's conscience for years to come.

But let us not forget the huge moral responsibility that Hizballa bears in every loss of innocent life in Lebanon. By having dispersed their infrastructre in the midst of heavily populated areas, by launching their rockets from alleys between houses and mosques, Nasrallah's militia is in effect using the Lebanese population as human shields.

The horrific massacre that has taken place today is a turning point in this war. This will force a cease fire on Israel before it is able to inflict enough pain on Hizballa, and the ensuing politcal settlement may prove inconclusive. If Hizballa is not disarmed as a result of this war, there will be more Qanas in Lebanon's future, and all the death and distruction would have been in vain.

Day 15: What Next?

On day 15 of the Israel-Hizballa war, two notable events too place. The first is the failure of diplomacy in Rome where the US, the UK and, to some extent, France opposed a shallow cease-fire that would not address the fundamental problem of Hizballa's arms and the danger posed to Lebanon's stability and Israel's northern towns. The second event is the tactical setback dealt to the IDF in Bint Jbeil on the hands of the Iranian proxy. Adding insult to injury, Hizballa fired a record number of rockets on Northern Israel, underlying the failure of the IAF in curbing the Katyusha launches.

These two events mean one thing, namely that this war is not nearing its end. Israel has no choice but defeating Hizballa, and this will clearly take time. Any other outcome will send a signal to the Arab world that Israel can be defeated, and will encourage military adventurism on the part of the Arabs and Iran. The said signal might even cause the fall of some of the moderate Arab governments on the hands of the masses smelling Israeli blood. And the failure of the International community in agreeing on a solution to the conflict means that there is no political defeat for Hizballa on the horizon.

The IDF has, so far, been quite aggressive from the air, but timid on the ground. It has committed limited resources in engaging Hizballa on the ground, has has paid for it in excessive casualties today. I expect a change in strategy in the next 48 hours where the IDF will accelerate its ground offensive by committing much larger forces, but victory for the IDF is most likely weeks away.

There are, however, three possible (but unlikely) events could lead to a rapid end to this war:

1. By some extraordinary intelligence feat, Israel is able to decimate the Hizballa leadership by hitting their secret bunkers.
2. An Israeli blunder causes a large number of civilian casualties, putting enormous pressure on Israel and its allies to accept a cease fire. Such a blunder will become increasingly likely as the IDF intensifies and accelerates its offensive.
   
3. An incident takes place that threatens to expand the war regionally, such as a skirmish between Israeli and Syrian forces.

Regardless of the scenario, one thing is for sure: There is more suffering ahead for the Lebanese civilians.

Is Lebanon Missing Another Opportunity?

Day 11 of the tit-for-tat war between Israel and Hizballa has just come to an end and there is no clear winner. Hizballa's ability to lob rockets into Israel does not seem to have been hindered despite the hundreds of sorties by the IAF. Missiles are still raining by the dozens on Northern Israel, including Haifa. Israel has scored a point by taking the hill-top village of Maroun El Ras after fierce combat and suffering 6 dead.

While there is still no clear winner, there is a clear loser: Lebanon. The country has suffered close to 400 civilian deaths, its infrastructure severely damaged, its factories on fire and a promising touristic summer wasted. Further, Lebanon has suffered severe reputational damage in the eyes of businesses planning to establish themselves there, and tourists planning to visit.

The worst part of this tragedy is that it might be in vain. Initial hope that the Israeli onslaught would bring an end of Hizballa is waning. Israel's vengeful air campaign has destroyed many targets that cannot be linked to Hizballa, including:

• The Beirut Airport
• Practically every bridge in Lebanon
• Lebanese Army barracks and positions, the same Lebanese Army that is supposed to disarm Hizballa and deploy in Southern Lebanon.
• Numerous factories, including a newly-built milk bottling facility
• Telecommunication towers and TV relay stations belonging to moderate and Christian stations.

This extensive collateral damage is creating, at best, increased animosity towards Israel, and at worst, increased support for Hizballa. Nasrallah's organization is not close to being dismantled, and is gaining support on the Arab street.

Sadly, the worst sin is probably being committed by the Lebanese Leadership. By not isolating Hizblla politically and pressuring it to release the Israeli hostages and stopping its attacks against Israel, Lebanon in ensuring that the onslaught continues, and that Hizballa remains a thorn in Lebanon's side.

The ultimate irony of the story is that Lebanon's loss is the gain of countries such as Syria and Iran. Hotels in major Syrian cities are booked at capacity, its airport is busy as a beehive. Iran on the other hand is benefiting from the increase in oil prices, and by some estimates, Iran has made about 500 million dollars out of the "July War".

Day 3: Hizballa 1; Israel 0

Written 7/14/2006 -- 10:30 AM EST
On the third day after the cross-border raid conducted by Hizbullah and which led to the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, the score is still 1-0 in the favor of the Shiite group. The Israeli reaction has been, so far, the equivalent of a violent chest beating, concentrating vengefully on Lebanese infrastructure targets and inflicting virtually no pain on Hizbullah. The IDF has, so far, not been even able to silence the Hizbullah TV station, Al Manar, despite the generous use of its offensive triad in the air, on the ground, and over the sea. Hizbullah, on the other hand, has showered Northern Israel with rockets, reaching Haifa for the first time.

Despite its relative lack of means, Nasrallah's group has also exhibited a keen knowledge of the location of strategic civilian and military assets in Israel, scoring direct hits on Israeli military installations deep into Israel. Today, Israel finds itself in desperate need to equalize the score, take the initiative and show progress to the civilian populations in the Galilee.

Clearly, escalating its assault on the infrastructure of Lebanon will yield no positive results. The weak Lebanese central government has neither the will nor the means to deal with Hizbullah. Any direct action against Hizbullah will cause irreparable damage to Lebanon's fragile unity, since the Nasrallah's army enjoys the support of the Shiite masses. Further, the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by Syria and Hizbullah during the last two decades, and does not have the military capability to deal with terrorist group.

What Israel needs, is to recover the initiative, bloody Hizbullah's face and gain international support in marginalizing the group. One way to accomplish this feat is through a limited ground offensive that will force Hizbullah into more conventional warfare where Tsahal can take full advantage of its armor, artillery and air force. This will surely inflict
casualties on the Hizbullah side, disrupt its rocket launching activities and open the way for deploying a peace-keeping force in Southern Lebanon that will shield Northern Israel and sap Hizbullah's raison d'etre. Having
the Lebanese border secured by a capable UN-sponsored, capable, peacekeeping force will go a long way in securing a Lebanese and international consensus to disarm the last remaining Lebanese militia.

Dealing Hizbullah a defeat on the ground will also convince its supporters that it is not the capable defense force that will safeguard their villages in the South. Such a ground offensive is not without risks. It will clearly cost the IDF a number of casualties, and will result in collateral damage in Southern Lebanon that will yield in a high diplomatic cost to Israel. Further, the International Community, led by the US, needs to be ready to quickly provide a neutral peacekeeping force that will promptly replace Tsahal in Southern Lebanon, in order to spare Israel and Lebanon another "Security Zone" fiasco.

What remains to be seen is whether Olmert and his coalition have the courage and political capital to retake the initiative, take decisive action against Hizbullah and, once an for all, provide security to the inhabitants of the Israeli North.