The Pope Speaks on Reason, Moslems React Unreasonably

The Pope, His Holiness Benedict XVI , gave a speech on reason and Moslems around the world reacted in a very unreasonable way. Now the Pope is being asked to apologize!


During a speech given in German at the University of Regensburg in Bavaria, the Pope quoted a 14th century dialogue between Byzantine Emperor Manuel II Paleologus and a Persian scholar. The Emperor was quoted saying: "Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached" . This raised the outrage of Moslems throughout the world.

Sure, taken out of context and attributed directly to the Pope, these words could be inflamatory. Unfortunately, the reaction went a long way in justifying Emperor Manuel II words. Mobs roamed the streets, churches were burnt (Orthodox and Protestant churches were not spared), Christian worshippers were attacked, the Pope was insulted.


But how could a speech delivered titled "Faith, Reason and the University, Memories and Reflections", in German, at a University make so many waves? How could a speech that also daclares that "Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul" lead to so much violence?

I believe that there are a number of explanations to these reactions:

1. Some Islamic religious figures believe that their position can be strenghtened by polarizing their constituents and suggesting to them that their religion is under attack.
   
2. Manipulation by Islamo-fascist groups. The speech in question was not a publicized one, and the discussion of the debate between the Emperor and the Persian was only a minor topic in that speech. Only someone looking to create dissension and violence would have found and publicized these comments.
   
3. Ignorance. I bet you that none of the demonstrators read the Pope's speech, and that a vast majority thought the Pope made the inflamatory statement and not Emperor Manuel II. None of them would understand the nuance of the speech and all of them rely on their bankrupt leaders to provide an interpretation.

What is really interesting about the whole story is this: The conversation relayed by the Pope took place over 600 years ago and has not cause any outrage until today. It has been published in numerous books (including Professor Theodore Khoury's), and nobody seemed to notice it until today.

You can find the full text of the Pope's presentation (translated to English) here.

The Aoun Debate

A reader of my blog left an interesting response to my posting titled "The Aoun Enigma". I reproduce here his response and my thoughts.

Michel said...

As a matter of fact, Aoun has always been a passionate and honest leader whose only aim has been to see Lebanon free, free of any occupying army, be it Syrian or Israeli and free of corruption and cheap politics.

Remember the $42 billion dollar national debt, remember the time when they defended "The Sister" presence in Lebanon when Aoun was fighting the Syrians and remember the Hariri-Hizbollah alliance in the recent Lebanese elections. The whole story has nothing to do with a strong central government, it is all about a small elite group who are arrogant enough to think they can run the country and decide the future of Lebanon for generations to come regardless of the opinion of the majority of the Lebanese population.

Forget about a change of government and forget about early elections; let's have a referendum and let the Lebanese decide their future.

The March 14th Alliance has betrayed Aoun, yes. But no, Aoun did not betray Lebanon. How on Earth, did he betray his country? By supporting a group that has resisted an occupying force, or by having an open arm and helping fellow Lebanese when they needed it most.

Yes, the strategic interest of the Christians lie in an alliance with the Shiites and the Syrians.

5:49 AM

Erasmus said...

To Michel:

I would tend to agree with all you said about the past of General Aoun.

However, I disagree that our interests lie with Hizballa and the Syrians. You don't want us to forget the past deeds of Lebanese politicians, but you somehow want us to forget about Syria's deeds and its ambitions in Lebanon?

The Shiites and the Christians would make good allies, it's true. But not Hizballa! It's an Islamist organization, taking orders from a brutal theocratic regime in Tehran.

To understand Hizballa, look at their flag:

1. It has a verse of the Koran on top.

2. Has an AK47 in the middle along with a globe.

3. Has the name of the party Hizballa

4. An inscription saying: "The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon"
The nuance of the phrase is very important. It's not the Lebanese Islamic resistance, but the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon. They are not Lebanese, they are Islamic and happen to be in Lebanon.

For an other indication to Hizballah's allegiance look at their actions outside of Lebanon. They are doing Iran's work in Iraq by distabilizing the situation, and doing the same in the Palestinian territories ensuring the Palestinians and Israelis don't reach a settlement.

Bottom line: Hizballa is not a Lebanese resistance movement, but an extension of the Iranian "Revolution" in Lebanon. By allying himself with the Syrian regime and Hizballa, Aoun is taking the side of the enemies of Lebanon.

The Aoun Enigma

I do not understand the politics of former Prime Minister, General Michel Aoun, a current member of parliament and leader of the "Free Patriotic Movement".

Aoun has always stood for a strong central government, and against militias. His first initiative as Prime Minister was to shutdown all illegal seaports, and tried to reign in militias. In order for this Christian general to show he was non-sectarian, he started by trying to dismantle the Christian Militia, the Lebanese Forces.

Now, Michel Aoun is the main ally of Hizballa, the last armed militia in Lebanon.

Aoun has been a staunch supporter of an independent Lebanon and fought bloody battles against the Syrian occupation forces in Lebanon. His followers constituted the core of the demonstrations that led to the Syrian precipitated withdrawal from Lebanon. As a matter of fact, the General epitomized anti-Syrian movement in Lebanon.

Now Michel Aoun is allied with all of Syria's agents in Lebanon: Michel Murr (formerly Syria's enforcer in Lebanon), the Baathists, the Karami clan of Tripoli, Hizballa and puppet President Lahoud. Pick any political remnant of the Syrian influence in Lebanon, and you can count Aoun as one of its allies.

I have not heard any real justification of Aoun's alliances. Some arguments I have heard include:

-"The March 14th Alliance is led by the Sunnis and Druze, while the Christians have been relegated to second class citizenship in it". But could this be, because Aoun has divided the Christians?

-The March 14th Alliance betrayed Aoun politically after his return to Lebanon". But is this a reason for Aoun to betray Lebanon?

-"The strategic interests of the Christians lie in an alliance with the Shiites". But do the strategic interests of the Lebanese Christians lie with Syria and Iran, Hizballa's godparents?

As a former staunch Aoun supporter, I would really like to have answers, to know what happened to such a promising Lebanese leader.

The UN Troops in Lebanon, Shield or Human Shield?

Will the 15,000 or so UN troops shield Lebanon from any future wars, or will they serve as human shields for Hizballa?

If past history is an indicator, the UN troops will play the latter role, human shields. In 1978, when Israel conducted a similar operation to stop the PLO from launching cross-border raids and lobbing Katyushas into Northern Israel, a similar UN force was deployed in the exact same region. When the said UN force tried to interfere with the PLO's military activities in the area, the Palestinian terrorists targeted the UN soldiers killing and wounding many. A compromise was then struck between the UN and the PLO, where the UN would reduce its "interference" and the PLO will stop attacking the UN forces.

I fear the same will happen in 2006-2007. If the UN force decides to disarm Hizballa or to interfere with its military activities, it will be attacked either militarily or through terrorist attacks. At that point, the UN has the option of succeeding in its mission or turning into a human shield. In order to succeed, the UN will need to hit hard if it is attacked. The member states must be willing to send reinforcements and act decisively against the terrorists.

Watching news footage of the arsenal being deployed by the UN forces, I am not very optimistic that the new UNIFIL plans to be a dissuasive force. It will more likely turn into a human shield for Hizballa.

Will Israel Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary?

I see many similarities between today's Israel and the Kingdom of Jerusalem of the 11th century, and I often wonder whether Israel will face the same fate.

The Kingdom of Jerusalem was founded in 1099 as a result of the First Crusade. It was much larger than today's Israel, extending from Lebanon in the North to the Sinai Peninsula in the South. It included Jordan and parts of Syria in the East. Like Israel, it was established and governed by Europeans and was influenced by the Levantine culture. The Kingdom flourished, and became increasingly confident in its security, reaching the point of complacency. Its Moslem neighbors united under the banner of Jihad and led by a brilliant general, Saladdin retook Jerusalem in 1187. The Kindom of Jerusalem lasted a mere 88 years.

Israel is now 48 years old. It is a prosperous, mostly democratic country. Like the Kingdom of Jerusalem, it is surrounded by a sea of hostile, Moslem nations. Recent history has shown that Israel is now much less of a combative state, its population preferring comfort and prosperity to the sacrifices of war. Israel's neighbors have become smarter and more sophisticated. More dangerously, Jihad as an ideology, is taking hold throughout the Arab and Moslem world. Will Israel suffer the fate of the Kingdom of Jerusalem?

Until a few years ago, the answer would have been that this is unthinkable. After all, Israel has the ultimate trump card: tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Israel was also able to secure peace treaties with two of its neighbors, including the formidable Egypt. On the other hand, the nuclear club is, getting increasingly less exclusive, with thrid-world countries like India and Pakistan acquiring "The Bomb". But the ultimate danger will come from rogue states like North Korea and Iran who are governed by irrational ideologues.

Further, Israel's peace treaties will become worthless if the regimes in Egypt and Jordan are overthrown. The formidable Egyptian army, equipped with the latest Western technology and whose officers are being trained in West Point would pose an ominous threat to the existence of Israel. The Jordanian army, although smaller in size, has earned the respect of most Western military experts.

Israel is on a very dangerous and tenuous course and if the current trends endure, it might very well not celebrate its 100th birthday. All it will take is another Saladdin.

And the winner is....

Many analysts have speculated on who won this latest Middle Eastern war. A majority thinks the Hizballa David defeated the Israeli Goliath.

Before we debate who the winner is, let's state who the clear loser is: Lebanon. With over a thousand deaths, a devastated economy, a seriously damaged infrastructure, and the end of an foreseeable tourist boom, Lebanon is the big loser of this war.

The world, however, wants to know who the winner is, and doesn't care much for losers. The two candidates are Israel and Hiballa.

Israel's biggest loss in this war is its deterrence. For a whole month, and to the last day, Israel was not able to even reduce the itensity of the Katyushas striking its North. It was unable to stop Al Manar (Hizballa's TV station) from broadcasting, and suffered relatively heavy losses. The myths of the omnipotence of the Israeli Mossad, the supreme power of the Israeli Air Force and the indestructibility of the Merkava tank have been shattered.

Hizballa's biggest loss was also deterrence. The thousands of rockets and missiles it fired on Israel cause relatively little damage and few casulaties. Ironically, over half of the deaths on the Israeli side were Arabs. This is bad news for Iran who was counting on this deterrence in preventing the US and Israel from hitting its nuclear intallations.

On the ground, the two sides had reached a stalemate. Israel seemed unable to launch its customary lightining fast offensive and was bogged down for a while around Bint Jbeil and Maroun al Ras. Israel's armored corps took the brunt of the casulaties, with pictures reminiscent of the Yom Kipur war. But Israel was able to prove, after some hesitation, that it could strike anywhere in Lebanon through its daring comando operations, in the Baalbeck region and around Tyre. The Israelis were even able to capture a number of Hizballa operatives during these raids.

From a number's perspective, Israel has captured over a dozen Hizballa operatives, a much higher number than the two Israelis captured at the beginning of the war. While Hizballa has kept its casualties secret, there is little doubt that the Shiite militia has suffered heavier losses than the Israeli side.

The reason why there is no clear winner or loser in this war is that the war has not ended. The International Community has just pressed the pause button for a while...

On Hizballa's generosity

Hizballa's generosity towards the civilians who lost their homes is a smart move. It is money well spent by Iran who made a bundle when oil prices jumped as a result of the Hizballa-Israel war.

$12,000 is a good sum of money in Lebanon, families can easily survive for 12 months until their houses are rebuilt by Hizballa's various organizations.

The Iranian proxy in Lebanon will not lose any popularity in its areas of Southern Lebanon and Beirut's Southern suburbs, at least not among the people whose only loss was personal property. But how will Hizballa compensate those who lost loved ones in the fruitless war it initiated? And how will Hizballa compensate the rest of Lebanon for the billions of dollars lost due to a ruined tourist season and the damage to the country's infrastructure? There, Hizballa will not win any contests. And those who stood by Hizballa (e.g. General Michel Aoun) are in an indefensible position. They are no less guilty than Nasrallah!

May the Lebanese vote wisely in the next elections.

What will happen on August 22nd?

There have been many theories as to what Iran might do on August 22nd. Here are some of the facts:

-August 22nd corresponds to the Moslem holiday of Lailat Al Miraj. The holiday occurs on 27 Rajab of the Islamic calendar, and it commemorates the Prophet Muhammed's ascension to heaven. Moslems believe that on that night the prophet was awakened by the angel Gabriel, and then accompanied by Gabriel, the Prophet flew on a winged horse to Jerusalem. There, on the ruins of the temple of Solomon, he prayed with Moses, Jesus and others before ascending to heaven.

-Iran's Ahmadinejad promised the UN that he will provide an answer to the latest proposal for Iran to stop uranium enrichment.

-Like his Lebanese ally, Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad believes he is on a divine mission leading to the victory of Islam.

-There have been rumors in the "intelligence community" that Iran was preparing something "big".

Here's my take on this: Religious extremists tend to like using symbolic dates for perpetrating their grand acts, so something might be brewing for the 27th of Rajab. But will Iran strike Israel or the US? It is unlikely, because the Iranian ayatollahs might be crazy, but they're not stupid. After all, the Iranians invented chess. An attack on either the US or Israel will bring massive retaliation on Iran, possibly destabilizing the regime of the ayatollahs.

If a big thing were to happen, it might be the Iranians testing a nuclear warhead, and thus joining the nuclear Club. This would be quite a coup since Israel and the US would be unlikely to launch an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities once Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs get the bomb. The US would have missed yet another opportunity of stopping a rogue state from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The scenario would be even more interesting if Iran and North Korea test together on August 22nd: there have been signs of suspicious activity at some North Korean nuclear sites...

Hizballa Protecting Lebanon?

Nasrallah says that the Lebanese Army and UN troops cannot defend Lebanon, thus the "Resistance" (meaning Hizballa) needs to retain its weapons. How exactly is Hizballa defending and protecting Lebanon?

Was Hizballa able to stop the Israeli F16's from bombing the Lebanese infrastructure? Was Hizballa able to stop the Israeli gunboats from shelling the Lebanese coastal cities? Was Hizballa able to stop the Israelis from re-occupying the South?

The answer to all of the above questions is no.

As a matter of fact, by hiding among the civilians, and by launching rockets from residential areas and hiding their launchers in residential buildings, Hizballa has endagered the Lebanese and cause the death and injury of thousands of innocent civilians.

Hizballa does not protect the Lebanese, it endangers their lives and well-being!

Hizballa and "Collateral Damage"

One of the key strategies employed by the Israelis in their war against Hizballa is to inflict pain on civilians. They are hoping that the civilians will pressure Hizballa to stop their attacks and somehow submit to the will of the Israelis.

Does Hizballa care if the population suffers? The answer is no. As a matter of fact, the Israeli punishment of the Lebanese civilians plays in the hand of Hizballa for three main reasons:

1. The suffering inflicted on the population makes it more hateful of Israel, and by the same token, more supportive of Hizballa. While this sounds somewhat illogical when seen from a Western point of view, it is quite logical to the population of the Middle East, where emotions are more powerful than rational thought.

2. Hizballa thrives on misery. The misery of the Shiites, who have been hardest hit by this war, provides Hizballa with the opportunity to offer them help. Using the hundreds of millions of dollars provided by Iran, Hizballa will hospitalize the wounded, offer food and necessities to the refugees, and help the people of the South and Beirut's Southern Suburb to rebuild their homes. Nasrallah will then become even more of a hero in the eye of the Shiites.

3. The West hates misery. Seeing pictures of dead civlians, suffering children and destoryed homes will prompt the Western powers to put pressure on Israel, thus restricting the Jewish State's room to maneuver.

It is interesting that the Israelis have not learned from their experience with the Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank: Collective punishment of civilians does not work to their advantage, quite the contrary.

Will the Cease-Fire Hold?

A cease-fire is about to take effect between Israel and Hizballa. The question that every Lebanese is asking is: Will the cease-fire hold? The answer is that it is unlikely and here's why:

-Neither of the warring sides is too keen on this agreement. Hizballa is emboldened by its relative successes on the ground and wants to show the world that they are still as capable as ever. Israel, which has not achieved any of the goals of its military operation, still feels that it has unfinished business with the Iranian proxy.

-The inter-mingling of the Israeli and Hizballa forces on the ground that is due to the rapid advance of the Israeli forces during the last hours of this round, will create plenty of opportunities for clashes that may spiral out of control.

-The UN Security Council resolution is vague, and is full of loopholes that can be exploited or misinterpreted by either side.

-The fighting did not accomlish anything, there was no winner or loser, except for Lebanon, but that doesn't count. Hizballa is slowly clarifying its position vis-a-vis its evacuation of South Lebanon and its disarmament. It is becoming more and more clear that it won't be easy to rid South Lebanon of Nasrallah's fighters, and this will be unacceptable to Israel.

If the cease-fire fails, it is likely that the war will spread regionally, involving Syria and possibly Iran.

How To Turn The Cease Fire Into A Victory For Lebanon

Lebanon was the clear loser of this latest regional war that was fought on its soil. The next step will be to turn this cease-fire into a victory, so that all of the death and destruction would not have been in vain.

The key to a Lebanese victory will be to remove Hizballa's weapons and prevent it from resupplying. The main ingredients of such a victory are:

1. Ensure that the International force that is to be deployed in Lebanon secures the border between Lebanon and Syria, and prevents the re-supply of Hizablla's arsenal.

2. Provide the International troops with a clear mandate that includes the use of force if and when necessary. This will ensure that the troops are respected by all sides and that they are able to enforce their mandate.

3. Once the hostilities are over, the Lebanese politicians need to make it clear to the public and the world that Hizballa bears at least part of the blame for starting this war. The aim of such an initiative is to weaken Hizballa politically before holding elections.

4. Hold new parliamentary elections with the aim of weakening the pro-syrian elements in Lebanon, including Hizballa. One of the pre-requisites for doing so is to bring the Aounist movement back into the March 14 coalition.

5. A strong Lebanese government that is able to rebuild Lebanon and deal with the thorny issue of Hizballa and its weapons.

These 5 points will ensure that Lebanon regains its stability and economic recovery.

On The Foiled Terrorist Plot In The UK

I wonder whether I will be allowed to wear any clothes when I board a flight next year. Adding to the restrictions on sharp objects, the unveiling of today's plot added liquids to the list of banned items.

Airport security is always reactive, precautions are taken after the initial threat has dissipated. Unfortunately for the civilized world, there are not limits to human ingenuity. Jihadi MacGyver wannabees will always find a way to disguise their instruments of death in one way or another.

The problem is that too much attention is focused on the items, and not much is focused on the passenger. There will always be a way to bring items on a plane that can bring it down. Terrorists might very well find a way to bring down a plane with their bare hands. The weakest link in the chain is the terrorist himself, his demeanor,his background etc.

The long term solution, however, is three fold:

1. Invest in intelligence, especially human intelligence. Infiltrate the terror organizations to bring them down. Electronic surveilance has its role to play as well despite the difficulties imposed by the legal systems of our democracies. It was, after all, an intelligence failure that led to 9/11 and an intelligence success that prevented the Heathrow catastrophe.

2. Invest in social services in countries that breed terror. By building schools, hospitals, providing clean water and medical equipment to the poorest Moslem populations, we might be able to lessen the extremism the population in these countries are subjected to. For the price of a cruise missile, we could build a school in Pakistan that will compete with the local madrassah. For the price of an Apache helicopter, we could build a hospital, and so on. Let us show the Arab and Moslem kids the humanity of democracies, not the products of their military industries.

3. Invest in providing Moslem population media outlets that provide their youth with an alternative to the vitriolic media they are subjected to. Radio Sawa and the Al Hurra TV channel are steps in the right direction, but much more is needed to gain the hearts and minds of what could one day become a new generation of terrorists.

More Arabs Killed by Hizballa

After the deadly attacks in Haifa a few days ago that claimed the lives of Israeli Arabs, two more Arabs were killed and 11 wounded in the Northern village of Deir El Assad. 5-year old Fathi Assadi and his 26-year old mother Miryam were killed when a Katyusha landed on their home.

The sentiment of the Arabs in Israel is bound to turn against the Shiite militia. There were some anti-Hizballa demonstrations in Haifa following the missile attacks there, two days ago. I expect there will be more...

Curiously, the Israeli media has not capitalized on these events, and obviously, the Lebanese media barely covered them.

Hizballa's Many Achievements In Lebanon

For those who have a short memory, and think of Hizballa as some force of Good in Lebanon, let's list some of the achievements of Hizballa and their effects on Lebanon.

• April 18, 1983: Hizballa rams a van laden with explosives against the US emabssy in Beirut, destorying the building, and killing 46 Lebanese and 17 US citizens. This was a blow to Lebanon, who was recovering from a bloody Israeli invasion to root out the PLO from the country. 46 Lebanese lives were deemed and acceptable price for killing 17 Americans. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• October 23, 1983: Hizballa attacks the US Marines and French paratrooper barracks in Beirut. 241 Americans, 58 French and 8 Lebanese were killed. The Lebanese included one woman and her 4 children. As a result of the attack against the International peacekeeping force in Lebanon, the country collapsed into chaos which resulted in the death of thousands of Lebanese. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• September 20, 1984: Hizballa launched another suicide truck against the US embassy annex, killing 20 Lebanese and only two Americans. Lebanon became increasingly isolated and a symbil of international terrorism. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• June 14, 1985: Hizballa hijacks TWA flight 847 killing a US Navy diver and keeping dozens of passengers captive for weeks. This led to the increasing isolation of Lebanon, most western airlines stopped flying into Beirut and MEA was forbidden to fly into the US. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• Throughout the 80's: Hizballa kidnaps over 30 Westerners, mainly French, Americans and British. The kidnapped were journalists, teachers, a peacekeeper and an Anglican Church envoy. Some of the kidnapped were tortured to death, others died due to the poor conditions of their captivity. This further isolated Lebanon and further ruined its reputation. The AUB and BUC were emptied of all of their US staff. End result for Lebanon: Negative
  



• 18 April 1996: As a result of Hizballa shelling of Israeli positions, Israel launched a campaign it called Operation Grapes of Wrath. During the back and forth shelling, Israel hit a UN compound with artillery killing 106 Lebanese civilians who were seeking refuge in the base. Hizballah had been firing mortar rounds about 50 meters from where the civilians were. End result for Lebanon: Negative



• Throrughout the 80's and 90's, Hizballa lauched many attacks against the Israeli forces occupying Lebanon. These attacks often resulted in killing Lebanese civilians living in the "Security Zone", in addition to the Lebanese who were killed during Israeli retaliations. In the end, Hizballa managed to wear the Israelis out, and they left the Security Zone. While the so called "liberation" of South Lebanon can be seen as a positive development, leading to stability, security and prosperity for the Southern Lebanese, the same result could have been accomplished by guaranteeing the security of Israel's Northern border. Worse, as soon as Israel withdrew, Hizballa and its Syrian allies invented a new excuse for maintaining violence in Southern Lebanon. The excuse was Shebaa Farms, a territory taken by the Israelis from the Syrian army, never before contested by Lebanon, always depicted as part of the Golan heights. South Lebanon was again destined for more violence at the hand of Hizballa. End result for Lebanon: Negative
  

July 12, 2006: Hizballa launched an unprovoked cross-border attack against an Israeli patrol, killing 8 soldiers and capturing 2 others. This unleashed the worst violence seen by both the Lebanese and Israeli populations. Hundreds of Lebanese civilians dead and wounded, billions of dollars of Lebanese infrastructure destroyed, billions of dollars of business losses, a promising tourist season aborted, an ecological disaster hits the Lebanese shore. All this misery, for what purpose? End result for Lebanon: Hugely Negative


It is time for Lebanon to rid itself of this cancer that has been plaguing it for years. It is time for the Lebanese to live in peace and dignity. It is time for Lebanon to regain its full independence and not be held hostage to foreign interests. It is time for Lebanon to regain its prosperity, and its role in the Middle East.

Lebanon Rejects The Draft UN Resolution!!

Incredible but true! The Lebanese government has rejected the draft UN resolution that would have ended the misery of the people of Lebanon. In doing so, the Lebanese government has aligned itself completely with Hizballa.

I do not buy the argument of the Lebanese government, that it really cares about the handful of Lebanese held in Israeli jails for conducting attacks against Israeli civilians or the IDF. If it did, it would have acted for the release of the hundreds of Lebanese detained arbitrarily in Syrian jails. It would have cared about the Lebanese Army soldiers that are missing after being captured by the Syrian army, during its invasion of the areas controllerd by General Michel Aoun.

After rejecting this plan of salvation extended by the UN, the Lebanese government, like Hizballa, bears the responsibility for the suffering of the Lebanese population. The next step is for the Lebanese people to demonstrate in support of the UN draft resolution, to tell their government that enough suffering on behalf of Hizballa is enough. All the Lebanese really want, is to live in peace and continue rebuilding their country that was so many times destroyed on behalf of the various Arab causes.

Three Arab Women Die In Hizballa Attack

A Hizballa Katyusha rocket killed three women in the Arab village of Arab El Aramche in Northern Israel today. Fadia Jemaa and her two daughters, Samira and Sultana were killed when the short-range Katyusha rocket hit their living room.

This is at least the second time that Hizballa has hit an Arab village and killed Arab civilians. What is interesting is that the Arab and Lebanese media never mentions the ethnic background of these casualties. Is Hizballa censoring the Lebanese press?

What is more interesting is what this says about Hizballa's abilities and tactics: Hizballa seems to fire randomly at the Israeli North relying on chance to hit civilian and military targets. Because of this, the thousands of missiles and rockets they have fired so far had a limited impact on the Israelis. The formidable Hizballa arsenal lost its deterrence towards Israel, and Iran is disappointed. In case Israel hits the Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran will not be able to use Hizballa to retaliate, it will have to do so on its own, risking a full-fledged war with Israel.

Nasrallah Tried .... But Failed

According to credible sources, the long range missile that was fired by Hizballa today was headed towards Tel Aviv. It was shot down by an Israeli missile defense system and crashed near Hadera, about 30 miles off target.

According to the same sources, the missile launcher was easily detected by the IAF and wiped out.

Is Tel Aviv Next?

Today, Hizballa's leader threatened to target the Israeli capital, Tel Aviv whenever Israel bombs the Lebanese capital, Beirut. It is interesting to note that the Israelis declared Jerusalem as their capital since 1950.

Tonight, barely a few hours after the threat, Israel bombed Southern Beirut again, defying Nasrallah.

What will Hizballa do tomorrow? I have no doubt that Nasrallah's militia will attempt to launch their longer range missiles towards Tel Aviv, otherwise their fearless leader wil lose face. Such a retaliation raises a few interesting questions:

1. How will Israel's missile defense systems perform in disrupting the missiles?
2. How many of its long range launchers will Hizballa expose to almost certain destruction, since the launch of such missiles leaves an unmistakable smoke and heat signature that the IAF is certain to locate.
3. Most importantly, how will Israel react if missiles cause death and destruction in their economic and financial capital.

The answer to the third question is not obvious. If Israel carries its threat to destroy Lebanese infrastructure, then it will be doing Nasrallah a favor. This will further inflame the world against Israel and increase the pressure on the Jewish State to accept a cease-fire.

What else can Israel do, since it is already hitting all Hizballa positions it knows about over and over again. One option is to hit Hizballa where it hurts most: the civilian areas under its control. For example, Israel could destroy electricity and water supplies to the main Shiite strongholds in the South and the Bekaa. It could even conduct punitive raids against Baalbeck.

But can Israel afford another Qana? In this game of chess, one loser is known in advance: the Lebanese population.

A Conspiracy Theory, Or Two...

I am not a fan of conspiracy theories despite their popularity in the Middle East. However, I'm a bit confused by the clumsiness of the IAF.

First, the IAF destroys a clearly marked UN observation post, killing 4 UN observers. This incident has, no doubt, sent chills down the spine of any country that was considering sending peacekeepers to Lebanon. This was, indeed, a very unproductive act.

Today, the IAF levels a building serving as a shelter to many children in Qana, the same Qana where the IDF committed another terrible mistake 10 years ago. The carnage is no less devastating in terms of its human toll and forces Israel to accept a cease-fire it has been resisting for 2 weeks.

Note that the conspiracy theories below are only meant to generate a discussion and are not meant as serious analytical theories.

Conspiracy theory #1: Hizballa is pointing their own laser target designators, illuminating buildings of their choosing and confusing Israel's smart bombs into hitting the wrong target. By doing so, the Iranian proxy is cornering Israel diplomatically.

Conspiracy theory #2: Instead of using technology to confuse the IAF targeting, Hizballa is using double agents to achieve the same purpose.

Conspiracy theory #3: Condi pressures Ehud to announce a cease-fire. Ehud does not want to lose face so he creates this incident as an excuse for a cease-fire.


What do you think is behind these two puzzling events?

Not another Qana!

What has happened in Qana today is absolutely horrible. This terrible loss of innocent life (over 54 dead, many of them children) will be remembered by the Lebanese as another dark episode in their history with Israel. This massacre due to the sloppy targeting by the IAF will weigh on Israel's conscience for years to come.

But let us not forget the huge moral responsibility that Hizballa bears in every loss of innocent life in Lebanon. By having dispersed their infrastructre in the midst of heavily populated areas, by launching their rockets from alleys between houses and mosques, Nasrallah's militia is in effect using the Lebanese population as human shields.

The horrific massacre that has taken place today is a turning point in this war. This will force a cease fire on Israel before it is able to inflict enough pain on Hizballa, and the ensuing politcal settlement may prove inconclusive. If Hizballa is not disarmed as a result of this war, there will be more Qanas in Lebanon's future, and all the death and distruction would have been in vain.

Day 15: What Next?

On day 15 of the Israel-Hizballa war, two notable events too place. The first is the failure of diplomacy in Rome where the US, the UK and, to some extent, France opposed a shallow cease-fire that would not address the fundamental problem of Hizballa's arms and the danger posed to Lebanon's stability and Israel's northern towns. The second event is the tactical setback dealt to the IDF in Bint Jbeil on the hands of the Iranian proxy. Adding insult to injury, Hizballa fired a record number of rockets on Northern Israel, underlying the failure of the IAF in curbing the Katyusha launches.

These two events mean one thing, namely that this war is not nearing its end. Israel has no choice but defeating Hizballa, and this will clearly take time. Any other outcome will send a signal to the Arab world that Israel can be defeated, and will encourage military adventurism on the part of the Arabs and Iran. The said signal might even cause the fall of some of the moderate Arab governments on the hands of the masses smelling Israeli blood. And the failure of the International community in agreeing on a solution to the conflict means that there is no political defeat for Hizballa on the horizon.

The IDF has, so far, been quite aggressive from the air, but timid on the ground. It has committed limited resources in engaging Hizballa on the ground, has has paid for it in excessive casualties today. I expect a change in strategy in the next 48 hours where the IDF will accelerate its ground offensive by committing much larger forces, but victory for the IDF is most likely weeks away.

There are, however, three possible (but unlikely) events could lead to a rapid end to this war:

1. By some extraordinary intelligence feat, Israel is able to decimate the Hizballa leadership by hitting their secret bunkers.
2. An Israeli blunder causes a large number of civilian casualties, putting enormous pressure on Israel and its allies to accept a cease fire. Such a blunder will become increasingly likely as the IDF intensifies and accelerates its offensive.
   
3. An incident takes place that threatens to expand the war regionally, such as a skirmish between Israeli and Syrian forces.

Regardless of the scenario, one thing is for sure: There is more suffering ahead for the Lebanese civilians.

Is Lebanon Missing Another Opportunity?

Day 11 of the tit-for-tat war between Israel and Hizballa has just come to an end and there is no clear winner. Hizballa's ability to lob rockets into Israel does not seem to have been hindered despite the hundreds of sorties by the IAF. Missiles are still raining by the dozens on Northern Israel, including Haifa. Israel has scored a point by taking the hill-top village of Maroun El Ras after fierce combat and suffering 6 dead.

While there is still no clear winner, there is a clear loser: Lebanon. The country has suffered close to 400 civilian deaths, its infrastructure severely damaged, its factories on fire and a promising touristic summer wasted. Further, Lebanon has suffered severe reputational damage in the eyes of businesses planning to establish themselves there, and tourists planning to visit.

The worst part of this tragedy is that it might be in vain. Initial hope that the Israeli onslaught would bring an end of Hizballa is waning. Israel's vengeful air campaign has destroyed many targets that cannot be linked to Hizballa, including:

• The Beirut Airport
• Practically every bridge in Lebanon
• Lebanese Army barracks and positions, the same Lebanese Army that is supposed to disarm Hizballa and deploy in Southern Lebanon.
• Numerous factories, including a newly-built milk bottling facility
• Telecommunication towers and TV relay stations belonging to moderate and Christian stations.

This extensive collateral damage is creating, at best, increased animosity towards Israel, and at worst, increased support for Hizballa. Nasrallah's organization is not close to being dismantled, and is gaining support on the Arab street.

Sadly, the worst sin is probably being committed by the Lebanese Leadership. By not isolating Hizblla politically and pressuring it to release the Israeli hostages and stopping its attacks against Israel, Lebanon in ensuring that the onslaught continues, and that Hizballa remains a thorn in Lebanon's side.

The ultimate irony of the story is that Lebanon's loss is the gain of countries such as Syria and Iran. Hotels in major Syrian cities are booked at capacity, its airport is busy as a beehive. Iran on the other hand is benefiting from the increase in oil prices, and by some estimates, Iran has made about 500 million dollars out of the "July War".

Day 3: Hizballa 1; Israel 0

Written 7/14/2006 -- 10:30 AM EST
On the third day after the cross-border raid conducted by Hizbullah and which led to the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, the score is still 1-0 in the favor of the Shiite group. The Israeli reaction has been, so far, the equivalent of a violent chest beating, concentrating vengefully on Lebanese infrastructure targets and inflicting virtually no pain on Hizbullah. The IDF has, so far, not been even able to silence the Hizbullah TV station, Al Manar, despite the generous use of its offensive triad in the air, on the ground, and over the sea. Hizbullah, on the other hand, has showered Northern Israel with rockets, reaching Haifa for the first time.

Despite its relative lack of means, Nasrallah's group has also exhibited a keen knowledge of the location of strategic civilian and military assets in Israel, scoring direct hits on Israeli military installations deep into Israel. Today, Israel finds itself in desperate need to equalize the score, take the initiative and show progress to the civilian populations in the Galilee.

Clearly, escalating its assault on the infrastructure of Lebanon will yield no positive results. The weak Lebanese central government has neither the will nor the means to deal with Hizbullah. Any direct action against Hizbullah will cause irreparable damage to Lebanon's fragile unity, since the Nasrallah's army enjoys the support of the Shiite masses. Further, the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by Syria and Hizbullah during the last two decades, and does not have the military capability to deal with terrorist group.

What Israel needs, is to recover the initiative, bloody Hizbullah's face and gain international support in marginalizing the group. One way to accomplish this feat is through a limited ground offensive that will force Hizbullah into more conventional warfare where Tsahal can take full advantage of its armor, artillery and air force. This will surely inflict
casualties on the Hizbullah side, disrupt its rocket launching activities and open the way for deploying a peace-keeping force in Southern Lebanon that will shield Northern Israel and sap Hizbullah's raison d'etre. Having
the Lebanese border secured by a capable UN-sponsored, capable, peacekeeping force will go a long way in securing a Lebanese and international consensus to disarm the last remaining Lebanese militia.

Dealing Hizbullah a defeat on the ground will also convince its supporters that it is not the capable defense force that will safeguard their villages in the South. Such a ground offensive is not without risks. It will clearly cost the IDF a number of casualties, and will result in collateral damage in Southern Lebanon that will yield in a high diplomatic cost to Israel. Further, the International Community, led by the US, needs to be ready to quickly provide a neutral peacekeeping force that will promptly replace Tsahal in Southern Lebanon, in order to spare Israel and Lebanon another "Security Zone" fiasco.

What remains to be seen is whether Olmert and his coalition have the courage and political capital to retake the initiative, take decisive action against Hizbullah and, once an for all, provide security to the inhabitants of the Israeli North.